French intelligence services were yesterday forced to deny reports that a secret and illegal research operation had revealed that extreme right-winger Jean-Marie Le Pen had a strong chance of reaching the second-round run-off in the presidential elections.
Voters go to the polls next weekend with the memory of
the veteran rightist's 2002 triumph still fresh. Then Le Pen beat left-wing candidates in the first round to take on President Jacques Chirac in the second.
The secret service denial was sparked by a claim in the left-leaning Nouvel Observateur magazine that a secret survey of 15,000 people, known as Operation Mercury, by the domestic intelligence service shows Socialist Segolene Royal is likely to be eliminated with centrist Francois Bayrou, leaving former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy in line to be elected in a second round run-off against Le Pen.
Sarkozy has focused his campaign on immigration, security and national identity, issues that traditionally belong to the far-right National Front, in a bid to draw support away from Le Pen.
Most polls put Le Pen fourth among the 12 candidates for the first round, with support running at 14-15 per cent.
However, this figure is higher than at the same time in 2002 and may well be an underestimate.
The intelligence service called the Operation Mercury story "unfounded". But observers point to a long tradition of revealing "secret" polls by "intelligence services" in the run-up to French elections.
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