Supporters flood Taiwan streets after attempted assassination

12.00pm - By JASPER BECKER

Supporters of President Chen Shui-bian flooded the streets of Taipei last night waving green flags to show their support after he and his vice president Annette Lu narrowly survived an assassination attempt.

President Chen and his running mate were travelling in a red open-top jeep through his home town of Tainan in southern Taiwan at mid-day on the last day of campaigning when, amidst the explosions of firecrackers, shots rang out.

Police believe at least two shots were fired, one of which grazed Annette Lu's leg and another brushed Chen's stomach. Chen was not wearing a bullet-proof vest. Later the 54-year old president received 14 stitches and was able to walk. Neither are believed to be in danger.

"We have to condemn such behaviour and stay calm and stand together. At this critical moment we have to show we are rational people," said Lien Chan, the presidential candidate of the Kuomintang, the Nationalist Party, in a live television broadcast.

"This could turn the election. It was very close but now people will come out and show the are not going to be intimidated," said Chen Lirun who flew in for the vote - with many other expatriates - from Los Angeles to vote in the tightly fought election campaign.

"If he had been killed, there would have been chaos," said another supporter, who together with his wife was driving through the streets on motorbike carrying flags in support of President Chen.

Taiwanese do not see China's hand behind the assassination attempt although Beijing has heaped abuse on President Chen and has refused to talk to him since he narrowly won the elections four years ago. China did not report the attempt on his life for eight hours.

When the first open presidential elections were held in 1996, China fired missiles that landed off the Taiwan coast in a bid to intimidate voters. Four years ago Chinese leaders threatened terrible consequences for Taiwan if voters elected Chen, the leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. President Chen narrowly won because the KMT vote was split between Lien Chan, a 67-year-old career politician and former diplomat generally described as "characterless" and "mechanical" and his younger and more charismatic rival, James Soong Chu-yu.

This time they are running on a single ticket but in order to stand a chance they have had to move closer to DPP position. Lien Chan now insists that Taiwan "would never merge, be taken over or united with the People's Republic of China." If he wins, Lien Chan has offered to go on "a journey of peace" to Beijing to demonstrate Taiwan's peaceful intentions and to improve cross straits relations.

James Soong has been more conciliatory towards China but insists that Beijing cannot stifle democracy by threatening war. "Taiwan's democracy and Hong Kong's freedom is a potent combination for China's future development. Taiwan's democratic development illustrates to all Chinese that democracy works in a Chinese society and that if Western countries can have democracy, China can too."

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao argued last week, "The Taiwan authorities have been trying to push for a referendum aimed at Taiwan independence under the pretext of democracy. "What they have been doing has undermined the one-China policy universally recognised by the world and posed a threat to stability in the Taiwan Straits area."

In the late 1980s the KMT ended the state of emergency that Chiang Kai-shek had imposed when he arrived with two million followers following his defeat in the civil war. Talks between the Communists and the Nationalists then opened but came to naught because the KMT lost power as Taiwan nationalists won impressive victories in parliamentary and presidential elections.

China has started an arms race by upping its military budget every year in double digit figures. It is acquiring new ships and aircraft and increasing the accuracy and size of its arsenal of missiles. Some 500 missiles are now aimed at Taiwan, forcing the Taiwanese to step up their own military purchases from the United States.

Annette Lu described China as a "giant state of terror" and attacked France for supporting China instead of a democracy. This week France became the first European power to hold joint naval exercises with China.

France had sold weapons to Taiwan, including Mirage fighter jets to Taiwan after 1989, but is now pushing hard to lift the European Union arms embargo on China. It hopes to not just win military contracts, but is lobbying hard to sell high-speed trains and nuclear power stations.

EU leaders including Romano Prodi have also declared that China is a vital ally in an effort to create a "multi-polar world", diplomatic code for opposing the United States. Prodi has ensured that China is being given access to key technology like Europe's own satellite geo-positioning technology, which will enable Beijing to target its missiles more accurately.

Chen Shui-bian has been trying to counter threats of an invasion by warning that if China goes too far he will hold a referendum and declare independence. Last November the Taiwan parliament passed a referendum law which allows the president to call a "defensive referendum" if Taiwan's sovereignty is under external threat. Today's referendum will ask voters two questions:

1. The People of Taiwan demand that the Taiwan Strait issue be resolved through peaceful means. Should mainland China refuse to withdraw the missiles it has targeted at Taiwan and to openly renounce the use of force against us, would you agree that the government should acquire more advanced anti-missile weapons to strengthen Taiwan's self-defence capabilities?

2. Would you agree that our government should engage in negotiation with mainland China on the establishment of a "peace and stability" framework for cross-Strait interactions in order to build consensus and for the welfare of the peoples on both sides?

The referendum will be rendered void if fewer than 50 per cent of voters collect a referendum ballot paper and is approved if more than 50 per cent of those who take part cast yes votes.

The Taiwanese believe that China will not dare attack before the 2008 Beijing Olympics but worry that every visiting foreign leader to Beijing is forced to make a public declaration that Taiwan is China's internal affair.

China can also count on its growing economic and diplomatic weight to ensure no one will defend Taiwan. US President George Bush has changed his initial position of swearing to defend Taiwan at all costs and is now urging the Taiwanese not to upset the status quo by holding the referenda.

China also hopes to win over Taiwan's business elite by offering them special access to its market. A fifth of the million or so Taiwanese who have moved to the mainland to make money from the boom may turn the vote in favour of the opposition Nationalist Party, the KMT, which lost the 2000 election by only 300,000 votes.

The KMT has deliberately targeted the business community, sending high-profile politicians on tours of the mainland to drum up support among those who have invested over US$30 billion in factories in China.

The mainland is now edging out the United States as Taiwan's main trading partner and the bedrock of its 22 million people's prosperity even though it is still impossible to travel directly across the Taiwan Straits, which means most businessmen have to make a stopover in Macao or Hong Kong.

- INDEPENDENT