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Home / World

Sunshine state key to White House race

By Christopher Garland
NZ Herald·
21 Oct, 2008 03:00 PM7 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

From a plush Miami hotel to a hot-dog stand at a football stadium in the north of Florida, it doesn't take much to find talk about the election - specifically, how Florida is going to decide the next President of the United States.

And for Jimmy Newlin, a former high school teacher in Naples, a small town in the south of Florida, Bill Clinton's famous campaign line still holds true - it's all about "the economy, stupid".

Just over a year ago, Newlin purchased a house in Alachua County, Florida. Since that time, he believes he has lost $20,000 on the property alone.

"I went to three banks and they all told me that real estate was an investment you just couldn't pass up," Newlin said.

"There is a wild disconnect between what they all suggested and what the reality is ... Now I'm using Government loans to pay mortgage loans; it's a huge gamble, and I'm not a gambling man."

Newlin knows that many in Florida are in the same situation. That is why he believes there is "huge resentment" among American taxpayers who "are now paying to bail out the guys who drove us into this mess in the first place".

The economy is a key issue allowing Florida, a traditionally Republican state, to edge towards the Democrats - yesterday's national poll average from RealClearPolitics.com has Barack Obama over John McCain by two points. Florida is crucial to both parties. In recent weeks, the flailing US economy, with the Democratic Party's massive grassroots campaign, appears to be making a difference.

For months, Democrats have worked the Florida streets, emphasising new voter registration, canvassing neighbourhoods and college campuses, while repeating the mantra: economic and political change is what is needed, and it can start right here.

With two weeks to election night, it is beginning to look like America's "Sunshine State" may reprise its prime-time role from the 2000 battle between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Yet for anyone who has forgotten the messy, disputed, and - at least for the Democrats - heartbreaking result of the 2000 election, senior political analyst Bill Schneider's words about the importance of the far southeast corner of the United States serve as a timely wake-up call.

"The campaign season is like the hurricane season," Schneider said.

"Florida lies directly in its path. Hurricane Obama hit Florida, and Hurricane McCain. Tropical Storms Biden and Palin made landfall in [Florida]."

The 2000 presidential election in Florida has become a synonym for murky state politics and deficiencies of the electoral system. George W. Bush's contested victory, decided by a mere 537 votes on a recount and after litigation, guaranteed him the White House.

The conditions surrounding the recount loom ominously in the minds of most Democrats and many still view the result as a "stolen" election.

The National Law Journal reported that the McCain and Obama camps have "lined up a small army of attorneys" to work through to Election Day in an effort to avoid a repeat of 2000.

The extra lawyers might just be essential in a state that has switched back and forth between paper and computer ballots. When the voter registration period ended there were 130,000 newly registered Democrats. The Republicans lost over 1000.

But the big question is whether all those newly registered voters will turn out on November 4. If they do, Florida and its 27 electorate votes - significantly more than any other "swing state" - are set to enter centre stage of this historic electoral season.

The north of the state borders both Alabama and Georgia, both traditional Republican strongholds, and in this region - commonly referred to as the "panhandle" - the culture is distinctly Deep South and conservative.

But in central Florida, in towns with large suburban areas such as Orlando and Tampa, the influx of migrants from northern states and greater population growth - Tampa alone has seen a yearly population increase of nearly 100,000 - creates a unique political landscape.

It is possible that this part of Florida could turn towards either the Republicans or the Democrats, considering the mixture of young professionals, new and older Florida residents.

With over 90,000 university students throughout the state, the college campus has also become a mini-stage for the war between the rival political camps.

Yet despite the inroads Obama has made suspicion about the Illinois senator abounds.

In glitzy Miami, the economic heart of south Florida, there remain long-standing conservative allegiances.

In Little Havana, many Cubans remember the political amnesty offered to them by Republican Presidents Nixon and Regan. They express fear about Obama's perceived "left-wing" alliances. Moreover, some of Florida's Jewish community admire McCain's military record and question Obama's support for Israel.

"I just don't trust him," Ivan says. "I don't know about his stance on Iran. I don't know if he really supports Israel. And, come on now, his middle name is Hussein!"

Even in Gainesville, considered one of the liberal hubs of Florida, there remains an undercurrent of false accusations fuelled by circulating emails and residual racism.

"Do you really feel safe about voting for a black Muslim?" asks Amanda, who is preparing for post-graduate study in the next year. "It's serious."

Having been through the electoral turmoil of 2000, Jimmy Newlin predicts that Florida will be a dynamic and unpredictable political phenomenon.

Newlin says: "There's such a huge population of snowbirds [out-of-staters who come to Florida to avoid the northern winters] and supposedly liberal groups - such as Jews and Catholics - whose votes could go either way."

The ability to harness such a large, varied group of voters is the challenge for both candidates. Professor David Colburn, director of the University of Florida's Reubin O'D Askew Institute on Politics and Society, believes the large population of seniors are an important audience for the candidates' respective appeals.

"What really amazes me about Obama's campaign is that a lot of people 55 and above really like him," Colburn says. "Remember, this is an election between a candidate in his 70s versus the potentially fifth-youngest president of all time."

"But the big issue is still the economy. McCain better have some answers about the economy."

Age and the economy are just two of the issues. Colburn says race too will remain a major a factor for many.

The large military presence in Florida adds another notable facet to the state's electoral identity. Erich G. Simmers, Florida resident and creator of weaponizedculture.com, argues "everything that is at stake in this election is at stake in Florida.

The housing crisis, for one, hit Florida really hard. And, remember, there is a significant amount of military personnel living here".

That means those whose futures are bound up in America's foreign wars are likely to make their voices heard throughout the state - although those voices are clearly not unified.

Both sides of the political divide are expending a huge amount of energy and money to win over the state.

Mitch Emerson, a Democrat who relocated to Florida from San Diego, California, for the opportunity to get involved in the campaign repeats as a mantra what most Democrats are now more than willing to admit.

"We just cannot let 2000 happen again. We just can't."

PLAYING THE ADVANTAGE

FOR OBAMA
The souring Florida economy. The state is first in job-loss statistics in the United States.

Nowhere has the property market deflated more quickly. The gloom is depressing tourism, including in Orlando, the hub of America's theme parks, such as Walt Disney World.

FOR McCAIN
The military. The state has 20 military bases; soldiers tend to back the former prisoner of war.

Most of the Cuban-Americans in Miami and the state's deep pool of evangelical Christians have gone for the Republican.

* Christopher Garland is a New Zealander studying at the University of Florida.

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