KEY POINTS:
SYDNEY - Australian Prime Minister John Howard is almost certain to call an election shortly after he farewells the leaders from Sydney's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
Besieged by bad polls, criticism from his backbenchers and speculation of a leadership spill, and reeling from a nightmare backlash during
the summit, Howard is tipped by commentators to announce the date as early as Wednesday. At the latest, an announcement is expected within a week.
Howard's crunch point came at the worst possible time - as the leaders of some of the world's most powerful economies arrived in Australia.
The Apec summit should have been Howard's grandstand, allowing him to be seen with the great and to be directing their deliberations on the crucial issues of trade and the environment.
Howard made climate change the centrepiece of the weekend leaders' retreat, recognising its rapidly growing political importance.
He knew he could count on Apec's tradition of framing announcements to polish the lustre of the host leader, enabling him to appear as the prime mover of a new international climate change agenda.
Selective leaks to the Australian media before the release of the statement on Saturday succeeded in giving Howard the kind of headlines he wanted - but only briefly.
Although significant in the broader context of Pacific-wide commitment to eventual, firm targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases, the Apec statement was far less than the headlines promised. And by then Apec had truly soured for its host.
Close friendship and flattery from US President George W. Bush - in addition to even tighter military ties and an initial, isolated advocacy of a separate approach to climate change - turned against him.
Bush was also ridiculed for thanking Howard for organising the "Opec" summit and for the efforts of his "Austrian" troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Recent polls have shown a majority of Australians oppose the war in Iraq, believe Howard has taken Australia too close to the US, and think that Canberra's support for US policies has lowered the nation's international reputation.
Apec itself was overshadowed by a strengthening domestic storm. Calls for Howard to quit and hand over to deputy Peter Costello emerged from the Liberal Party and conservative commentators, dominating headlines and throwing Howard's Apec spin control off its axis.
In one humiliating incident, Howard lost control of his joint media conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowing domestic political issues to take over from significant developments and issues involving one of the world's great powers and a rapidly emerging major player in the Pacific.
Although Howard is unlikely either to quit or be dumped by the party, the speculation added critical mass to the steamroller that has been racing towards the Government since Kevin Rudd became Labor Leader late last year.
Rudd's ascendancy glowed brighter during Apec, where he met Bush and charmed Chinese President Hu Jintao by speaking fluent mandarin and demonstrating his deep knowledge of China - a legacy of academic study, diplomacy and private consulting. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer could only retort: "I can speak French."
The most recent polls have confirmed that Howard is in real trouble. Newspoll gave Labor a landslide 59 to 41 per cent lead in the two-party preferred vote that decides elections under Australia's voting system. Rudd was preferred prime minister by a margin of 11 percentage points.
A Morgan poll last week said the announcement of Labor's industrial relations policy had pushed the Opposition's two-party preferred lead up 5.5 per cent to 60 per cent, while pruning Government support to 40 per cent.
Although the polls will almost certainly narrow as the election nears, and Howard has in the past turned almost certain defeat into victory at the last moment, the Government is increasingly unlikely to survive.