Stakes high for Iran at the polls

Presidential candidate Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying for his third stint at the Iranian presidency. Picture / Reuters

Sitting on his moped in the twilight of central Tehran, Peyman Moghadam was heckling passing cars. Glued to his forehead was a photo of the former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

"There is only Akbar Shah!" the teenager shouted at any motorist daring to display a rival's poster on the last night of campaigning.

The 17-year-old will be among the first to vote for Rafsanjani, who could complete an extraordinary political comeback by re-taking the office he vacated eight years ago.

"When he was in power before, he was extremely powerful," said Peyman. "He's the only one who can make this country work again."

Young and jobless, like so many other Iranian voters, Peyman's main concern is the state of the economy and he sees little prospect of elections bringing any real change.

The trade-off is cynical: his heart wants reform but his head tells him that only an insider, like Rafsanjani, can actually achieve anything.

As Iran goes to the polls, the stakes could scarcely be higher. The three political factions represented offer perhaps the greatest degree of choice yet put to the Iranian people. Rafsanjani's supporters say he will create economic growth, solve the festering nuclear problem and achieve rapprochement with the United States.

Reformists have meanwhile broken long-standing political taboos by promising to free all political prisoners and challenge the power of the Supreme Leader. Populist conservatives, who call themselves fundamentalists, say they will achieve social justice and reverse an ever-widening wealth gap. And supporters of a boycott are intent on creating a broad democratic front to challenge the entire system of Iran's theocratic state.

"This is a very different election from those in the past," said a leading Tehran analyst who did not want to be named. "The manner of campaigning has completely changed to accommodate much younger voters and the political wings represented could not be more different."

Even conservatives have made an effort to appeal to younger voters, with posters that feature young people and draw more influence from Western-style advertising than the religious calls to duty.

The cheerful mood of the posters is in stark contrast to the dark political realities now besetting the Islamic republic. As Western suspicions about Tehran's nuclear intentions grow, the threat of a new sanctions regime or even air strikes against nuclear facilities has come into sharper focus.

Washington has accepted the desirability of reaching a negotiated settlement with Iran but is losing patience with the drawn-out process required to achieve it. And both sides look as far from a compromise as ever on the crucial issue of uranium enrichment.

At home, the political battle between reformists and conservatives has left the country's Government grid-locked, affecting economic policy and causing a hard-line assault against dissident political thinkers and publications. Human Rights Watch warned last year that abuses were increasing as the conservative religious judiciary fought off a perceived political threat.

With two spells in the presidency already under his belt, Rafsanjani confirmed in May he would run. He has walked tall across Iran's political landscape since early in the revolution, and is the last of the republic's founders to run for its highest elected post. He is popularly seen as the great Machiavellian powerbroker of Iranian politics, a man of backroom deals and shifting allegiances.

His nickname Akbar Shah - King Akbar - refers to this passion for playing the games of high power as well as his rumoured wealth. Much will depend on his relationship with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two are rumoured to be engaged in a long power struggle

But as one ally observed: "Khatami always used to challenge the leader in public and give in in private. But Rafsanjani would agree to everything in private and then do what the hell he liked."

Despite the increased kudos and real desire to achieve detente that Rafsanjani could bring to the presidency, Western diplomats remain sceptical that he can achieve his goals. On the international stage he is shackled by a terrorism charge that could restrict his movement. And at home the increasing bitterness of this election will limit his bargaining power with the hard liners.

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