Wars have always forced innovation.
From Hannibal at Cannae and Alexander the Great at Gaugamela to the SAS commandos of the desert campaign in World War II, tactical breakthroughs have shattered enemy complacency and changed battle strategy forever.
Sunday’s extraordinary Ukrainian attacks against Russia’s strategic bomber force – arguably one of the most important raids in the history of modern warfare – will have a similar effect. The rules of war have just been rewritten, and the consequences will be felt globally.
The most immediate impact will be felt in Russia, where the illusion of invincibility that hung over its long-range aviation fleet has been so spectacularly sundered. Officials in Kyiv reckon they have destroyed or damaged up to a third of Russia’s most prized air assets, planes that have wrought devastation in Ukraine for so long.
The two principal consequences of Operation Spider’s Web, as Ukraine has christened it, can be broken down into the psychological and the strategic. Both will shape the way Vladimir Putin is able to wage war.
Perhaps most significantly, the raid will complicate Moscow’s strategy of raining bombs on Ukrainian cities. Russia has been reliant on its Tupolev bombers, which can fly thousands of miles and carry nuclear or conventional warheads, to conduct large-scale cruise missile attacks.
Moscow will find this harder to do if it has lost a significant number of its strategic bombers, according to Fabian Hoffman, a missile technology expert at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, a Washington-based think-tank.
“To generate this type of force power, you need these big bombers that can carry multiple cruise missiles,” he said. “If you take out the bombers, then you really limit Russia’s ability to launch these types of attacks.”
During the largest sorties, multiple bombers take to the air to fire dozens of cruise missiles from different locations in an effort to overwhelm Ukrainian defences. For such missions to succeed, Russia has to operate a strict rotational system: for every bomber in use, a second is undergoing short-term repairs, while a third is in long-term maintenance, according to military analysts.
Russia has relatively few strategic bombers, with most independent experts estimating no more than 90 in operation.
Ukrainian officials said on Monday that their army of quadcopter drones had destroyed 13 Russian aircraft – 12 of them strategic bombers – a figure echoed by Russian military bloggers. Another two dozen may have been damaged, though to what extent remains unknown.
Russian commentators close to the military called the strikes a “black day for Russian long-range aviation”, likening it to “Russia’s Pearl Harbour moment”.
Given the scale of the raid, it seems likely that while Russia will still be able to mount cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, it may have to do so with reduced frequency and intensity. In addition, Russia will be forced to divert resources to protect facilities far from the front, straining its war machine.
The psychological consequences are just as significant. For more than a week, Ukraine has endured some of the most intense Russian bombardment of the war. Its frontline cities lie in ruins, while Russian forces have been advancing relentlessly – if glacially – for more than a year.
The brazenness and ingenuity of Operation Spider’s Web will lift spirits, just as earlier Ukrainian spectaculars did.
The sinking of the Moskva, flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, in 2022, and the maritime drone assaults that forced the Russian navy largely to abandon the Crimean port of Sevastopol are the most memorable of these. Operation Spider’s Web – in which the jewels of Russia’s air force exploded into fireballs 4180km from the Ukrainian border – may well eclipse both.
The mission will likewise damage morale in Russia. It did more than burn planes: it also scorched Russia’s national confidence. Moscow will not be able to replace its losses quickly or easily.
The Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers that made up most of the losses are no longer being produced. Russia is still making the Tu-160 – the largest and heaviest bomber in the world – but production is so slow that one or two enter service each year.
The losses may also force Moscow into making choices it would rather avoid. Russia’s long-range bombers fly around the world to menace the edges of Nato airspace and maritime waters. Putin may now have to sacrifice his desire to project military power globally in order to maintain full aerial pressure on Ukraine.
This dilemma will be welcomed in Western capitals – yet Ukraine’s June surprise will be causing sleepless nights outside Russia. Military planners everywhere will now be fretting about the security of their own air forces.
Many Western countries have concentrated their air assets in ever fewer bases to save money. Aircraft are frequently parked on aprons with no protection from the skies.
Western governments now face the unpleasant prospect of having to invest heavily in hardened aircraft shelters and counter-drone systems. This will be both expensive and time-consuming – but until it is done, prized Nato assets will remain vulnerable to any malign state or non-state actor with a handful of cheap kamikaze drones.