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Moscow’s renewed northeast offensive, launched late last week, wasthe most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began.
In just two days, Moscow has captured between 100 to 125sq km that includes at least seven villages, most of them already depopulated, according to two open-source monitoring analysts.
Vovchansk, among the largest towns in the area where a pre-war population of 17,000 had dwindled to 2500 before Russia renewed its ground assault last week, has emerged as a key focus of the pitched battles engulfing the Kharkiv region. By today, only 200 to 300 residents remained, Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said, as Russian forces closed in from three sides.
Poorly built fortifications and long-term ammunition shortages have enabled Russia’s sweeping advance in the area since Saturday, local officials and soldiers said. The Kremlin’s forces were seeking to divert and distract Ukrainian troops across the 1000km front line until a big batch of new military aid for Kyiv from the United States and European partners arrives on the battlefield in the coming weeks and months, Ukrainian commanders and analysts said.
That makes this period a window of opportunity for Moscow and one of the most dangerous for Kyiv in the two-year war, they said. By intensifying offensive operations, Russia seeks to stretch Ukraine’s forces thin and forge breakthroughs.
Russian forces claimed to have taken an additional 90sq km, which has not been independently confirmed.
Opening a new front from two points along the border with the Russian region of Belgorod was the easiest tactic to pin down and divert Ukrainian forces from heavy battles raging in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia’s most sought-after prize.
Russian emergency services work at the scene of a partially collapsed block of flats authorities said was hit during an attack by Ukrainian shelling, in Belgorod, Russia. Photo / AP
“The enemy identified the most geographically convenient place ... the state border line,” said Yurii Federenko, commander of the Achilles battalion of the 92nd brigade. His unit was among others rotated into the northeast from the Donetsk region to stabilise the northeast front, he said.
He fears a similar front may be opened in the Sumy region, which also shares a border with Russia.
The string of villages captured along the contested grey zone, where enemy shelling precludes the building of fortifications, were also the easiest for Moscow’s forces to nab. Their momentum will likely slow as they approach better-fortified settlements, Ukrainian commanders said.
Small batches of US military aid have started to trickle into the front line in the form of much needed artillery, said Federenko, whose unit received some of the aid. But it will take at least two months before incoming supplies will meet Kyiv’s needs to hold the line, he said. Until they arrive, Ukraine won’t be able to seize the battlefield initiative, he said.
“They now have an opportunity to attack us while we cannot properly reply,” he said.
Russia’s offensive seeks to take advantage of this window of time. “In order to achieve success, in my opinion, in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the enemy needed to spread ... our defence forces. Accordingly, the enemy started the campaign in Kharkiv region specifically,” Federenko said.
The Kharkiv incursion has effectively pinned Ukrainian forces in the region, while potentially drawing precious reserves away from heavy battles in the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar areas of the Donetsk region, where Russia’s advance has been far more significant and strategically important.
Ukrainian local officials said they feared Vovchansk’s fate may mirror that of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukrainian cities where fierce fighting and scorched earth tactics forced Ukrainian withdrawals.
Russian forces were inching closer to Vovchansk, and heavy battles were ongoing on the town’s outskirts. Using assault infantry units Russian forces are attempting to secure positions in three directions, as Ukrainian forces attempt to dislodge them using firepower. Ukrainian commanders describe the battles as dynamic and complicated.
Russian troops have so far entrenched themselves in the villages of Strilecha, Pylna, Borysivka, Krasne, Oliynykove, Mrakovets, Pletenivka, and from there were launching attacks near Hlyboke Zelene Hatysche, and Buchansk.
The capture of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka in February opened a door for the Kremlin’s troops to push westward, deeper into Donetsk. Russia illegally annexed Donetsk and three other regions in 2022 shortly after it invaded Ukraine, and taking control of all of Donetsk is one of the Kremlin’s main war goals.
If Ukraine isn’t able to halt Moscow’s advance, it could create conditions for a possible attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
It could also create a “buffer zone” to protect Belgorod, where frequent Ukrainian attacks have embarrassed the Kremlin. In March, Russia announced plans to evacuate about 9000 children from the Belgorod region because it was being shelled continuously.
Russian emergency services today finished clearing the rubble in the region’s city of Belgorod, where a section of a residential building collapsed following what authorities said was Ukrainian shelling.
Yevgeny Poddubny, a usually well-connected military correspondent for Russia’s state TV corporation VGTRK, said in a recent Telegram post that the Kharkiv assault marked the beginning of “a new phase”.
“We’re pushing the enemy back from the border, destroying the enemy in order to deprive the Kyiv regime of the opportunity to use relatively cheap rockets to attack Belgorod,” he said.
