Russian President Vladimir Putin could declare war within days. Photo / Getty
Russian President Vladimir Putin could declare war within days. Photo / Getty
Experts have warned of a devastating turning point in the invasion of Ukraine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin potentially preparing to declare all-out war within days.
Insiders are now sounding the alarm over a possible escalation on May 9 – 74 days since Russian forces first invaded on February 24.
And it could prove disastrous for the people of Ukraine and the wider world alike.
Why May 9?
May 9 – known as "Victory Day" – is a symbolic day for the nation, marking the surrender of Nazi Germany and the end of World War II in 1945.
Each year, a military parade is held on the day, with leaders watching from the tomb of Vladimir Lenin, and delivering a major address to the people.
So far, both Russia and Ukraine have shied away from a formal declaration, but given the huge significance of the date, fears are mounting Putin will take the opportunity to declare war on the neighbouring state, which could then be used to justify increasingly brutal action.
"May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time," James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Program at Chatham House, explained to CNN.
Russian military action destroys buildings in Ukraine. Photo / AP
'Now at war'
One prominent expert who believes May 9 will be a turning point is UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who told LBC Radio that Putin would be even more likely to take action on that key date given so far he had "failed" in most of his Ukraine objectives.
"I think what he's going to do is he's going to move from his 'special operation' … and he's been laying the ground for being able to say 'Look, this is now a war against Nazis' and what I need is more people, I need more Russian cannon fodder basically," he said.
"I would not be surprised … he is probably going to declare on May Day that 'we are now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people.'"
Russia has been humiliated by its failures in Ukraine. Photo / Getty
Russia humiliated
Much has been made of Russia's extensive humiliations so far – including the loss of more than 15,000 personnel, countless tanks and aircraft and the destruction of the Moskva guided missile cruiser – with many convinced an escalation on May 9 will be even more likely as a result, as Russian authorities attempt to claw back some respect.
"Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he's got … and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country," Mr Wallace continued.
"We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back."
Secret clues
This year, Russia followers will be poring over Putin's speech for fresh clues of his intentions in Ukraine, with The Atlantic claiming he would almost certainly provide a hint about whether he would "bring that crusade to an end or extend it to a planet-threatening war".
And while Putin may ultimately decide not to declare war in five days' time, others are convinced he will still seize the significant day to make some sort of major statement, which could come in the form of annexing the rebel regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine, ramping up attempts to seize Odessa or claiming victory in Mariupol.
"He (Putin) will be able to declare that the Russian army had some victories in Ukraine," CNN quoted Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst for Russia at Crisis Group, as saying.
"He can try to use this date to solidify his support."
'Bad feeling'
Meanwhile, there have also been some signs the invasion could instead end on May 9, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – an ally of Putin – telling Pope Francis recently peace could be achieved soon.
"When I met Orban, he told me that the Russians have a precise plan, and that the war will end on May 9th," the pope told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in an interview published on Tuesday.
"I sure hope so. That would explain the speed of the military operations in the last few days," he continued, but added he was not confident of a swift resolution.
"I have a bad feeling about it all, I'll admit.
"I'm very pessimistic. However, it is our duty to do all we can to stop the war."
