ANALYSIS:
Russia is a ticking time bomb. And President Vladimir Putin is being wound up. So now the world is waiting for his invasion of Ukraine to explode in his face.
Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia has only enough fuel, ammunition and military equipment to sustain another seven months of all-out effort. Come January, Putin's forces will be exhausted.
"The active phase should go to the maximum decline by the end of the year," says Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.
"Russia has 12 months of resources to wage a normal war."
The signs of decline are already evident.
This week, photos emerged of 60-year-old T-62 tanks being hauled out of storage to replace Russia's staggering frontline losses.
Unconfirmed Ukrainian claims place Russia's losses after three months of war at 1300 tanks, 3200 armoured vehicles, 600 artillery pieces and 29,000 troops.
But Moscow remains determined to save the reputation of its autocratic head of state.
It's making slow but steady progress in Ukraine's east.
"The fighting has reached its maximum intensity," Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Malyar told a press briefing earlier this week. "We have an extremely difficult and long stage of fighting ahead of us."
Moscow has again called for Ukraine to engage in ceasefire talks. But this has been rejected.
Budanov reiterated Ukraine's determination not to surrender an inch of land to the Russian invaders. There would be no surrender. There would be no truce – or ceasefire – leaving the occupied Donbas in Russian hands.
"It will end in one thing: the return of our occupied territories," Budanov said.
That's not how Russia sees it.
I wanted to say once again, addressing the residents of the Kherson region, that Russia is here forever. There should be no doubt about that," declared Kremlin Senator Andrei Turchak. "There will be no return to the past."
But it remains to be seen if Russia's military can deliver this.
US intelligence agencies have assessed Moscow's military as reorganising itself for a more protracted campaign.
Video of Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in the Novomykhailivka area.https://t.co/V87guya4X7 pic.twitter.com/GM5fS5Sszv
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 25, 2022
It retreated from Kyiv. It's dug-in in Ukraine's south. And it's shown signs of abandoning attempts at broad sweeping encirclement manoeuvres in the east in favour of small but steady advances.
"A Russian military foothold in the southeast would make any scenario to end this war costlier in lives and resources," warns Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyst Nataliya Bugayova.
Reportedly footage of Russian loitering munitions being used against Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast. https://t.co/7Bro2jFl9Phttps://t.co/G8ukYhrblc pic.twitter.com/083CCdxEqU
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 26, 2022
"Control over Ukraine remains Russian President Vladimir Putin's goal, and that goal is not going to change. The time is now for Ukraine to expand its counteroffensive, and it needs military aid from the West to do so."
While Russian troops have been pushed back to their border in Ukraine's northeast, the situation is more fluid elsewhere. A high-attrition assault over a narrow front has seen a portion of a major highway between two Ukrainian cities fall under its control.
Moscow poured thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks into the attempt to surround Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk on the Siverskiy Donets river.
"It is clear that our boys are slowly retreating to more fortified positions," the governor of Luhansk province Serhiy Haidai said late this week. "We need to hold back this horde".
It may become a case of "last man standing".
Moscow has begun pulling obsolete Cold War era tanks out of storage. It's considering commandeering civilian ships. And the maximum conscription age is about to be abandoned.
The Russian Duma voted to remove the upper age limit for military conscription earlier this week. Now any male over the age of 18 can serve. Previously, turning 40 was a ticket out.
It's evidence of the strain Putin's "special operation" in Ukraine has placed on his unprepared military.
📽️A military echelon with T-62 tanks spotted in Russia. Ukrainian side reported a few days ago that due to high amount of tank losses, Russian army is forced to re-activate certain amount of T-62s. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/Wn1RVqlW66
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) May 25, 2022
"Russia is approaching the limits of the combat-capable manpower it can make available for the war in the short term," says Bugayova. "Troops have been pulled from every possible direction: private military contractors redeployed, recruits ginned up from Syria, and locals in occupied areas forcefully conscripted. Few options remain."
The T-62 tanks, which entered service in 1962, were photographed and filmed being carried by train into the city of Melitopol in southern Ukraine.
"As a result of losses during hostilities, Russian enemy was forced to withdraw from storage T-62 tanks to recruit reserve battalion tactical groups that are being formed to be sent to Ukraine," a Ukraine army Facebook post noted.
The 60-year-old tanks are no match for modern weapons systems.
But the more modern T-90, T-80 and T-72s that had formed the fighting core of Russia's motorised battle groups have also fared poorly.
Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade filmed destroyed Russian equipment in the east, 2 T-72B3s, and 2 additional unidentified tank hulls. Also captured what appears to be some 3BK14M HEAT-FS rounds. pic.twitter.com/e53afDRGdO
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 26, 2022
Drones. Portable antitank missiles. Guided artillery. All have proven the match for Moscow's idea of rapidly advancing heavy firepower. Instead, a lack of infantry and combat aircraft support has often left these armoured vehicles exposed and vulnerable.
In just one instance last week, 70 Russian tanks were reported destroyed by Ukrainian artillery as they attempted to cross a river.
Ukraine claims more than 1300 have been destroyed. Open-source intelligence has visually confirmed 700 of these.
#UkraineWar: Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 700 tanks since it began its invasion of Ukraine three months ago.
— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) May 25, 2022
This includes:
- 18 T-64s
- 417 T-72s
- 133 T-80s
- 20 T-90s
- 112 Unknown tanks
Full list: https://t.co/QR37xcY8mq pic.twitter.com/1mtPgNv5FB
US Defence Intelligence Agency chief Scott Berrier told the US Congress earlier this month that he believed the war had reached a point of "stalemate". This, he said, meant it could drag on for some considerable time yet.
"The longer Russia is allowed to stay, the costlier it becomes to drive it out," explained the ISW's Bugayova. "Time also gives Putin an opportunity to adapt the Russian people to the idea of a long war and put the Russian economy on a wartime footing."
How much time each side can buy with reserve equipment and fighting prowess remains to be seen.
"It would take Putin months to put new, usable combat troops into Ukraine," she said.
"Once rejuvenated, however, Russian military progress in Ukraine could look very different if it attacks from its current lines, compared with its starting positions from February."
What matters now is the ability of Ukrainian forces to continue resisting. And Putin's ability to maintain his grip on power.
"Three months after launching his ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine, it seems increasingly likely that Putin's bid to liberate the Donbas from Kyiv will be remembered as one of the most spectacular failures in contemporary military history," says Stockholm Free World Forum analyst Anders Åslund.
Time is of the essence, says Bugayova. "The less successful the Russian offensive is in the east, the more critical the Kremlin's need to secure the areas it has already seized will become." Putin needs a victory, she added.
"That buys him time to reassess a long-term strategy to realise his unchanging goal of regaining control over Ukraine. It is an off-ramp for Putin, but it's only a temporary one."
But Åslund argues Putin's time is already running out.
"The conventional wisdom is that Putin's Praetorian Guard, the Presidential Protection Service, is so strong, well paid, and loyal to Putin that it will protect him against any coup attempt," he says.
"However, the cost of Putin's continued leadership to Russian society is so great that it would be surprising if no group would mobilise against him."
The jury is now deliberating in Erin Patterson's trial.