A screen grab from a video released by the Russian Ministry of Defence shows Russian forces launching a missile attack against Ukraine forces near Kursk. Photo / Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin has convened a meeting of his Security Council and his military commanders rushed to send reinforcements as a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region presented the biggest challenge to the Russian leader since an uprising by Wagner mercenaries in June 2023.
With Russia’s military eager to quash the surprise attack that is now in its fourth day, questions mounted over failures in intelligence and strategy that allowed Ukrainian troops to cross the border and seize what some Russian analysts estimated to be about 260sq km of territory in Kursk – the biggest counterattack on Russian soil since Putin invaded Ukraine.
The attack on Kursk, which is adjacent to Ukraine’s Sumy region, caught Russian defences thinly staffed and seemingly unaware.
“This is a very big blow to the reputation of the Russian authorities, of the military and Putin,” one Russian business executive said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid retribution or prosecution. “Because for two-and-a-half years, there has been minimal damage to Russian territory, apart from the occupied territories [in Ukraine]. It was only drones.
“Now it’s not clear how many victims there have been. There has been some destruction, and it’s clear they are not able to stop it quickly.”
Meanwhile, a Russian strike on a supermarket in Kostiantynivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region today killed at least 14 people and injured 37, according to Ukrainian officials. Footage from the site showed billowing plumes of smoke and blood spattered on the ground, as well as substantial damage to surrounding shops, vehicles and buildings.
“Russia will answer for this terror,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Telegram, as a rescue operation continued.
Russian military bloggers reported fighting under way across Kursk, and some Russian analysts said they feared it could take a long time to take back the territory seized by Ukrainian troops if a full-scale counterattack by Russian reinforcements was delayed for several more days. Ukrainian brigades would have time to dig in at fortified positions, potentially handing Kyiv a powerful bargaining chip in case of future ceasefire or peace negotiations.
A leading member of the Russian Parliament, Andrey Gurulyov, who is a former deputy commander for Russia’s southern military district, condemned the botched response to the incursion. Posting on the Telegram messaging platform, Gurulyov called for the military prosecutor to investigate decisions by commanders to transfer defence forces from the Kursk region ahead of the attack.
Questions were also being raised about the failure to act on what Gurulyov said were intelligence reports of Ukrainian armed forces preparing to attack the region 48 hours before the assault began.
Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst, said there were obvious failures.
“This is a blow because it is clear that the signal came from intelligence to the leadership, but … measures were not taken,” Markov said. “This is a failure of the entire system of intelligence, and since Putin is responsible for this, then it’s clear this is a blow to Putin.”
However, Markov said the situation for Putin could be resolved if Ukraine’s attack is defeated. “People are still hoping this will end in the destruction of the Ukrainian forces,” he said.
Unverified video of the fighting in Kursk and its aftermath showed Ukrainian forces had used donated Western assault vehicles and weapons in the attack, which officials in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere said was appropriate because Kyiv was defending itself.
A Russian academic close to senior Moscow diplomats warned the use of US weaponry on Russian soil crossed “another red line” that was likely to have serious consequences even as the ultimate gain for Kyiv was unclear.
“This is a step towards further escalation, and of course there are additional risks since we don’t know how Russia is going to react,” the academic said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “But it seems to me, it isn’t something which principally changes the military situation since this is a relatively small operation. It is a PR operation rather than an attempt to really change the situation on the battlefield.”
The academic added the audacious seizure of territory by Ukrainian troops was unlikely to encourage Putin to make compromises.
On Friday, police in Sumy said 270 of the region’s residents had died since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. As they braced for Russian reprisals, the Sumy authorities said they had ordered the evacuation of 20,000 residents and were co-ordinating transport for them.
Ukraine’s bold cross-border incursion followed weeks of an intense summer of fighting in which Russia has made steady gains in Ukraine’s east, putting pressure on Kyiv’s depleted and fatigued forces.
Analysts say the attack may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front as well as to provide leverage in future negotiations. Some military experts questioned the wisdom of Ukraine’s attack, given its weakness at other key points on the front, and they predicted Russia’s far larger and better-equipped military was likely to oust the Ukrainians sooner than later.
Still, the successful operation on Russian soil – after more than two years of fighting almost exclusively in Ukraine – had psychological value for Kyiv, boosting the morale of Ukrainian troops and civilians by showing Putin and his military as hobbling and ineffective.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, suggested on Friday that any military actions on the Russian territory could improve Ukraine’s position in future negotiations with Russia to end the war. Podolyak did not comment on the Kursk incursion specifically.
Ukrainian officials have remained tight-lipped about the operation and Zelenskyy has made only oblique references to it during his nightly speeches, saying Russia “should feel” the ramifications of the war it has inflicted on Ukraine.
Markov said it was likely the Ukrainian government plans to use the seized territory as a bargaining chip in future talks and it was now a race against time for Russian troops to counterattack before the Ukrainian brigades dig in.
The conduct of the war so far has shown “the advantage goes to those defending”, he said. “I think their plan is to take as much territory as possible, and while Russia is collecting its reserves they will build fortifications.”
Even though Russia has greater aviation forces than Ukraine, Moscow’s recent military operations in Kharkiv and Donbas have shown it is difficult to take territory where defences are entrenched. “If they act at the same speed as Russia is attacking elsewhere, it could take a year to take back the Kursk region,” Markov said.
Reports by Russian military bloggers and pro-war Telegram channels suggested Ukrainian troops have occupied more than 20 Russian border villages and part of at least one small city, Sudzha. The head of the city administration in Kurchatov, where Russia’s Kursk nuclear power station is based, said on Friday that Ukrainian troops were nearing the nuclear plant.
Previously, anti-Kremlin armed groups backed by Ukraine have launched several cross-border attacks into Russian territory, but the Kursk operation marked the deepest and most effective incursion yet.
“Ukrainian forces have clearly advanced quite far into Kursk, but how much territory they control or actually intend to control remains unknown,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Footage released Friday by Russia’s Defence Ministry showed a military column transporting artillery and armoured vehicles entering the Kursk region, some 530km south of Moscow. The Defence Ministry reported BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and artillery pieces had been sent to support forces fighting in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region.
Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry declared a state of emergency in Kursk on Friday, as thousands were evacuated. Videos circulating on social media appeared to show lines of cars leaving, while Russian authorities released photos of emergency workers supporting residents. Russia’s Health Ministry said at least 66 people were injured.
Ukrainian forces initially stormed the Kursk region’s Sudzhansky district Tuesday, before advancing deeper into Russian territory as Russian authorities claimed, falsely, they had repelled the attack. On Friday, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed to have killed 280 Ukrainian troops and destroyed 27 armoured vehicles over the previous 24 hours.
“Units of the North group of forces, along with incoming reserve troops, army aviation strikes and artillery fire, foiled the enemy’s attempts to advance deeper into Russian territory in the Kursk area,” the ministry said.
Footage online appeared to show the aftermath of an attack on an ambushed Russian military column in the Rylsk region, about 32km from the Ukrainian border. Footage showed the bodies of dozens of Russian soldiers in destroyed vehicles. Russian military analysts speculated the column was hit with US-provided HIMARS rockets.
The Washington Post could not independently verify the claims. A man who reportedly filmed the video of the convoy was detained and questioned by Russian authorities, according to Rybar, a Russian military blog with links to the defence ministry.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, asked by reporters about videos indicating Ukraine using HIMARS in Kursk and whether such use would align with US policy, said there’s “no change in our policies”. He said the administration was in contact with Ukraine about the Kursk operation and would “reserve comment until those conversations are complete”.
Ukraine on Friday said it also had hit Russia’s Lipetsk military airfield, about 350km from the border. Lipetsk’s regional authorities declared a state of emergency, evacuated residents from nearby villages and confirmed there were detonations at an “energy infrastructure facility”. Satellite imagery published by Planet Labs on Friday appeared to show the total obliteration of the airfield.
Iran has vowed to respond, claiming its enriched uranium wasn’t destroyed.