Russia has been setting the stage for an invasion of northern Ukraine from neighbouring country Belarus since at least October, in what has been described as a “worst-case scenario” for the war.
Documents from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said analysis showed Russia had been preparing for a potential invasion in the north for months.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was due to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, as Russia builds up its military operations in Belarus – a country that has long been viewed as a willing participant in Putin’s war machine.
The ‘worst-case scenario’
The ISW said the build-up made more sense as part of preparations for a renewed offensive than as part of ongoing exercises and training practices.
Prominent Russian pro-war military blogger Igor Girkin, who was once a Russian military commander and was last month found guilty for the murder of 298 people after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down, amplified the possibility of the invasion, the ISW found.
Girkin broke the possibility into two potential courses of action: either Russia could invade from Belarus in an effort to capture territory, or it could do so in a diversionary operation to draw Ukrainian forces away from other parts of their embattled country.
The reasons for Russia’s arms build-up in Belarus remained “ambivalent”, the ISW said.
Verified evidence of the build-up “made more sense” as part of preparations for a renewed offensive in the north, but there remained no evidence that Moscow was actively preparing a strike force in the country, it found.
A new offensive in the northwest
Meanwhile, the Russian military had “much more clearly” been setting the stage for a new offensive in northwestern Luhansk Oblast, the ISW found.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported an increased volume of trains carrying personnel, military equipment and ammunition to combat areas just before Christmas.
Geo-located footage also showed a train loaded with Russian tanks heading towards Luhansk Oblast, and the ISW had previously observed Russian forces transferring elite airborne troops away from Kherson and Kharkiv and towards the region.
Putin’s popularity contest
Russian President Vladimir Putin has in recent weeks put in a slew of public appearances, in a potential bid to win back the Russian people after embarrassing failures in Ukraine.
Putin has been delivering vague statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – a dramatic pivot from his notable absence from public life in the first 10 months of the war.
He visited an arms manufacturing facility in Tula Oblast in the lead-up to Christmas, and reportedly also planned to visit the Uralvagonzavod machine-building factory but cancelled at the last minute.
Putin has suffered serious blows in the court of public opinion since invading Ukraine in February, as he asked soldiers to fleece their own first aid kits and conscripted the elderly into his floundering war effort.
He has blasted the West for trying to “tear apart” Russia, saying in an interview aired on national television that his invasion in Ukraine aimed to “unite the Russian people”.
“Divide and conquer, that’s what they have always sought to accomplish and are still seeking to do,” he said.
“But our goal is different: it’s to unite the Russian people,” he said.
Zelenskyy prepares a peace plan
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February, which could be timed to exploit Russia’s potential invasion from Belarus, the ISW found.
Zelenskyy previously outlined a 10-point peace plan at November’s G20 summit, which called on Russia to withdraw all of its troops, and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
#Russia An unknown drone attacked an airfield in the Saratov region. It fell on the runway of the airfield of the city of Engels. A Russian air base is located here, which is shelling #Ukraine. Two Tu-95 bombers were damaged. Two people are injured. pic.twitter.com/7uounqvtjw
— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) December 5, 2022
The Engels air base in Russia was reportedly attacked for a second time early on Boxing Day, with blasts heard hundreds of kilometres from the frontline.
The air base, which had been shelling Ukraine, was previously hit on December 5 in what Russia said was a Ukrainian drone attack.
The Boxing Day blasts were not immediately confirmed, and Ukraine has never claimed responsibility for any attacks within Russia – though they do describe them as “karma” for waging war.
‘Not a hoax’
The ISW said concern over the potential invasion from Belarus was not a hoax.
“Concern about the possibility that Putin might pursue this [invasion] is certainly not merely a Ukrainian information operation intended to pressure the West into supplying Kyiv with more weapons, as some Western analysts have suggested,” it said.
“ISW continues to assess that a renewed large-scale Russian invasion from Belarus is unlikely this winter, but it is a possibility that must be taken seriously.”