In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered defence producers to accelerate drone output from the 1.5 million units produced last year.
“These weapons are still in short supply,” he said at the time.
In January, he called for Russia to “emerge as one of the global technological leaders” in drone production by 2030, in light of what he said was “the huge importance of this industry” for the country.
Moscow’s aim is to use a “punishment strategy” with inexpensive Shahed drones to force Kyiv into submission, the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent report.
Although Ukraine manages to jam or shoot down most of them, the weapons “saturate Ukrainian air defences and erode civilian morale through persistent nightly attacks,” it said.
Ukraine estimates Russia is preparing to produce between 300 to 350 long-range drones a day and wants to raise output to 500 a day, Zelenskyy said on May 27.
Russian drone manufacturers succeeded in boosting production of long-range craft to more than 30,000 this year from 15,000 in 2024, while also producing as many as 2 million small tactical drones used against tanks and artillery, Politico reported June 5, citing Oleh Aleksandrov, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Ukraine’s defence intelligence directorate estimates that half of the long-range drones produced each month are decoys, according to Forbes Ukraine.
Kyiv has also accused Russia of using electronics largely sourced from China in violation of sanctions. Beijing has previously said it’s not providing weapons to either side in the war.
“Drones turned out to be a low-cost alternative to precision weaponry,” said Denis Fedutinov, a Moscow-based expert on UAVs.
“This realisation didn’t come immediately. However, once it became clear that drones deliver tangible results, it provided the impetus to accelerate the integration of unmanned systems of various classes into military operations.”
Growth across all categories of Russia’s drone output has been exponential, compared to the figures before 2022, Fedutinov said.
“In some areas, such as loitering munitions and FPV drones, we’re talking about increases by several orders of magnitude,” he said, referencing first-person view drones controlled by an operator via video feed.
Russia’s drones: By the numbers
1.5m produced last year
267 used in strikes in one day in February
479 used in attacks on one day in June
At talks in Istanbul last week, Russia laid out terms for a ceasefire that amounted to capitulation, including Kyiv handing over control of territory it still holds in four occupied regions and agreeing to neutrality and limits on its military capability and foreign weapon supplies.
The European Union today proposed export bans aimed at depriving Russia of critical technologies and industrial goods, including restricting dual-use items used in producing drones, missiles and other weapons.
“We want to make sure that Russia does not find ways to modernise its weapons with European technologies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Brussels.
The EU also proposed banning the Nord Stream pipelines and cutting the Group of Seven oil price cap to US$45 as part of the new sanctions package.
In addition to the Shahed drones, which Russia started to import from Iran in 2022 before starting its own production, Russia has developed a new drone using Chinese technology that can select targets using AI.
Ukrainian military intelligence on June 9 published details of the design of the new Russian V2U strike drone, which it said is used by Moscow’s forces in Ukraine’s northeast Sumy region.
Ukraine has led the way in using drones on the battlefield.
It launched UAVs from within Russia to strike a series of strategic air bases on June 1, destroying bombers, in one of the most audacious aerial attacks of the war.
It’s also deployed drones to devastating effect on the frontlines to prevent major Russian advances and to hit vital infrastructure deep inside Russian territory - including transportation networks and oil refineries.
“Russia has caught up and is maximising production and use of drones, but they’re doing this in a conventional way,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a defence think- tank.
“The Ukrainians are managing not to lag behind in the drone war by responding asymmetrically.”
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