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The word whispered among the media pack jostling outside the Fat Lady pub in Oakland is that Rudy Giuliani will be coming in a black SUV. So while the city's few Republicans gather, the pack keeps its eyes peeled.
Eight cameras wait, their tripods pushing against a man
selling political buttons, which declare "Rudy for President" and ask "Slick Hilly - Is American Ready?" He's sold about 15, but says "it's afterwards that I really sell them".
It's hard to fathom but six years after the September 11 attacks and 20 months before the Presidential elections, Rudy Giuliani is headline news. The heroic glow of his mayoral leadership on September 11 still clings and, against most expectations, he is the early favourite to be the Republican nomination for President.
A Washington Post/ABC poll at the end of last month gave him 44 per cent support among those "leaning" towards the Republicans. John McCain, who was the assumed frontrunner, was battling on just 21 per cent. Those numbers showed a significant swing in Giuliani's favour since the January poll, when he was on 34 per cent and McCain 27 per cent.
It's a good time to be Rudy, and Giuliani doesn't want those good times to end. This 24-minute "walk-through" in the heavily Democratic city is all about the cameras waiting for him, which will help to keep him in the limelight.
This Presidential campaign has hit full-swing earlier than any in the past, in part because many states have scheduled their primaries earlier than before to increase their political muscle. In the past fortnight, Barack Obama has pulled a crowd of 12,000 in Oakland, and John Edwards has had a media-only "sit-down" in San Francisco, both attempts to gain free press attention. After all, they are up against the Clintons, with their huge money-making machine and name recognition.
Giuliani, with as much fame as Hillary Clinton, enters the bar to cheers. The man famous for courage under fire and a terrible temperament looks surprisingly goofy. The yellow tie he's wearing is removed and given to a supporter, but by the time he emerges from the crush of fans and media he's wearing a tie covered in stars and stripes.
Bruce Cain, professor of political studies at UC Berkeley, says the former New York mayor's tactic for now is simply to play up the strong, tough leader profile, make statements that move him to the right, and raise some ambiguity about his stance on issues such as abortion.
By Republican standards, the thrice-married Giuliani is a liberal - pro-choice, pro-gun control and pro-gay rights. Cain says that's the reason political pundits assumed he'd struggle to connect with the Republican base. But they overlooked the national obsession with 9/11, and that none of the Republican candidates has strong conservative credentials.
Still, more than a few pundits think Giuliani's day in the sun can't last. Some say he's less the Reagan he wants to be, more of the Nixon. And while polls have him beating Hillary Clinton at this stage, critics seem confident he will self-destruct.
"With seasoned commentators there's still a suspicion that the bottom could fall out of the Giuliani campaign at any time; that there's a tremendous amount of ignorance about what he stands for," says Cain.
Ignorance, too, of the growing Giuliani backlash. Grand Illusion, one of several new books critical of Giuliani, attack what they call the 9/11 hero myth. It argues he failed to prepare New York for any attack, doing nothing about long-running warnings about firefighters' inadequate radios and basing the city's emergency command post in what turned out to be the worst possible location: the 23rd floor of the World Trade Centre.
Further, the national firefighters' union is threatening to damage his core claim to fame. They are furious at Giuliani's "despicable" decision in November 2001 to cut back the crews searching for victims' remains in the Trade Centre rubble, and proceed with a "scoop and dump" operation.
Despite his wiggles to the social right he's surprisingly candid about gays in the military. Responding to comments by General Pace, the chairman of the joint chief of staff, that homosexual acts were "immoral", Giuliani is dismissive.
"My view as a public official is that it isn't for me to be judging people's morality. I believe morality gets judged between you and God," he says.
It's a chance rejected to take a conservative stance. But then this is California. "The question is whether he says that in South Carolina," says Cain.
Just why he's bothering to visit California is perplexing the reporters. Oakland is 90 per cent Democratic.
The answer lies in the California Republican Party's rules. Whereas states can give all their votes to the candidate who wins the most districts state-wide, in California the three delegates from each of the 53 Congressional districts go to the biggest vote-getter in that district.
So, if Giuliani can win the Oakland district with its mere hundreds of Republican voters, he gets as many delegates at the Presidential convention as if he wins the Republican heartland of Orange County.
On more solid conservative ground, he condemns the House of Representative's vote to support an Iraq withdrawal date of August next year. Like George W. Bush, he would veto it if he was President. Unashamedly, he plays the 9/11 card.
"I think in a war you never tell your enemies what your plans are. I've had more to do with terrorism than most. And you don't display weakness in front of terrorists." At the word "terrorism" a cheer goes up. It's still his silver bullet.
He even reveals an interesting strategy of trying to turn his vices to virtue. All his personal "mistakes" were made while in public office, and they didn't get in the way of his work reducing crime in New York, turning a city deficit into a surplus, and "handling the worst attack in US history. So they have nothing to do with job performance, and I ask people to judge me on my job performance."
For now, he can get away with that. As Cain says, the Republicans are following "the 11th commandment that thou shalt say no evil about other Republicans". For now.
"[However] with millions invested, at some point McCain or Romney will look at his numbers and ask if he's really going to go down without having a go at Giuliani."
As Giuliani walks back to his car, kissing 5-month-old William Marusich, he must know the sunshine can't last. The country's desire for change does not seem to have been sated by the Democratic sweep of last November's congressional elections. And there's a long way to go.
Tara Marusich, mother of William, speaks for many: "My mind's not made up. Just because you're registered one way doesn't mean you're not going to switch sides."
