Rudd's finger still on poll trigger after ETS blow

CANBERRA - Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's finger remains on the trigger for a snap election despite renewed assurances yesterday by his deputy, Julia Gillard, that the Australian Government has no plans to use the climate war as an excuse for an early poll.

Speaking after the Senate yesterday rejected the compromise greenhouse emissions trading scheme agreed between Rudd and the Opposition under deposed leader Malcolm Turnbull, Gillard said the legislation would be presented for a third time in February.

Yesterday's second rejection of the ETS followed the election of the Opposition's new conservative Leader, Tony Abbott, and provided Rudd with an election trigger.

The constitution allows the Prime Minister to dissolve both Houses of Parliament and call an early poll if the Senate twice rejects legislation sent to it by the House of Representatives.

Gillard said the Government wanted to give the Opposition one more chance to heal its divisions and pass the legislation.

"We believe over the Christmas period there is time for the calmer heads in the Liberal Party to consider this question, to consider acting in the national interest," she said.

But while reiterating Rudd's intention to serve a full term, Gillard said if the Senate failed to pass the ETS in February the Government would consider all options - including a double dissolution election.

"No one should underestimate the determination of the Government to have the scheme pass through Parliament," she said.

The chances of the Opposition, Greens, Family First and independent Senators changing their minds over the holiday break are minimal.

Abbott, who after winning the leadership said he was not afraid to fight an election on climate change, yesterday said an ETS would not be included in the new climate change policy he would take to the polls.

He said the Opposition had been "liberated" from a scheme he described as a A$130 billion ($166 billion) tax, and that he no longer considered valid the mandate for an ETS claimed by Labor after its 2007 election victory.

"We were (previously) still in a post-election period," he told ABC radio.

"We're now in a pre-election period.

"Their mandate I guess eventually expires and is replaced by our desire to provide the people with a contest, and that's what they're going to get under my leadership."

Abbott, who also said the Opposition's climate policy would look at the long-term potential for nuclear energy, is shifting the Liberals back to the Right and has gained overwhelming party room support for his rejection of the ETS.

Despite significant residual backing for the scheme among moderate Liberals, only two crossed the floor to vote with the Government yesterday and there is little chance of putting emissions trading back on the Opposition agenda.

But Abbott will face problems healing a party riven by bitterness over the dumping of Turnbull and his climate change policy.

Turnbull supporter, backbencher Judi Moylan, gave notice of this in an interview with ABC radio in which she warned that Abbott had a "difficult chasm to bridge".

"In the face of some of the worst treachery I have ever witnessed in the 17 years that I have been in Parliament, Malcolm Turnbull stood firm for the (climate change) policy we took to the last election," she said.

But Abbott, an experienced and hardened politician, has promised to be "collegiate and consultative" in reshaping a new, conservative Opposition.

Yesterday Joe Hockey, a close friend and ally of Turnbull and a leadership candidate rolled in the first ballot on Tuesday, agreed to return to Abbott's front bench as shadow treasurer.

But, already, a powerful coalition is building against him.

Labor has opened fire with a mass emailing campaign warning that Abbott intended to take the Liberals - and, if possible, the nation - back to the era of former Prime Minister John Howard.

Abbott has given notice that he intends overturning Labor's industrial laws and returning to a more open-market system modified from Howard's unpopular WorkChoices laws.

The campaign has been joined by unions and environmental groups, backed by criticism of the ETS rejection by Lord Stern, head of the team that produced the globally influential climate change report for the British Government.

Labor and its supporters are hoping this week's by-elections in Sydney and Melbourne - contesting seats vacated by former Liberal Leader Brendan Nelson and former Treasurer Peter Costello - will reflect anger at the ETS rejection.

Labor is not running candidates in the blue-ribbon Liberal seats, but there are hopes the Greens candidates will make significant inroads.

Even under the best circumstances, Abbott has virtually no chance of winning the next election and can realistically hope only to make up ground lost in 2007: apart from the fallout from the Opposition's climate-change bloodletting, no government in the past 80 years has been unseated in its first election.

But Howard, Australia's second longest serving prime minister, has told Abbott not to give up hope. "There is no such thing as an unwinnable election, any more than there is an unlosable election," he told ABC radio.

POLL DEBATE
* Yesterday's defeat of the ETS legislation gives Labour the trigger for a double-dissolution election.
* But the Government says it will reintroduce its legislation on February 2.
* That suggests it will not opt for an early election before then.
* A normal term election would be due after next August.