Rob Crilly: Trump's legacy on line in Kavanaugh battle

Brett Kavanaugh. Photo / AP

Opinion

So much for the lofty ideals of the Founding Fathers. So much for the idea that the Supreme Court should stand independent, the better to hold Congress and the US president to account.

The race to confirm - or reject - Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice is as much about politics and the electoral calendar as it is about his fitness to fill the vacant seat.

Midterm elections are due on November 6 and Republicans are in a hurry. They have scheduled a vote of the Senate judiciary committee for today, just a day after Christine Blasey Ford delivered her withering testimony accusing Kavanaugh of assault.

They could have called his childhood friend, Mark Judge, one of the few witnesses to the alleged attack, to give evidence. But they have chosen not to, just like they have shrugged off demands that the FBI conduct a full investigation.

The calculation is clear. The longer this goes on, the more visible it will be when voters elect Congressmen and women in November.

Not good for a party that was already losing support among women. In the past week, the number of Republican women supporting Kavanaugh has dropped by 11 per cent (from 60 to 49 per cent, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico poll).

Republicans are desperate to bulldoze this issue away by getting Kavanaugh through the process.

Their worst case scenario is that the issue drags on beyond the midterms.

With the way the numbers are going there is every chance that the party could lose two seats, and with them control of the Senate - unthinkable only a few weeks ago because most of the competitive races are in Republican-leaning states.

Lose the Senate and the probability of winning the vote to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court reduces to zero.

That would be a disaster not just for the Republican Party but for the president himself. When things were at their bleakest last year, when his election manifesto disintegrated, when he faced ridicule for his stalled plans to force Mexico to pay for the southern border wall and when his legislation to repeal Obamacare was knocked back by Congress, Trump always had one rallying cry.

He had delivered on his promise to steer a conservative judge on to the Supreme Court.

Neil Gorsuch had been confirmed with a minimum of fuss. The president won plaudits from opponents for naming such a credible figure. Whatever else happened, he had that.

He had made good on his compact with a Republican Party that has turned a blind eye to the wild Twitterisms and naive outbursts coming from the Oval Office in return for a judge who would push a conservative agenda on the highest court in the land.

Kavanaugh would take it further. He would cement a conservative majority on the court, tilting it decisively to the right for a generation. For the first time, Republicans could realistically contemplate the repeal of Roe vs Wade, ending the right of women to abortions.

While much of a president's legacy is fragile, temporary, reversible in these polarised times, the Supreme Court is for life. Its remit over constitutional matters makes it a glittering prize for a president who has made America's culture wars his defining battleground.

The Muslim ban, a woman's right to choose, an American footballer's right to kneel, heck, even the president's right to fire the man investigating collusion with Russia, could all come into play.

Installing a 53-year-old judge on the Supreme Court would represent a victory that could keep Trump's legacy intact for another 40 years.

But the clock is ticking.