Reports give conflicting accounts on IRA weapons

The full extent of IRA disarmament was yesterday the subject of two jarringly contradictory reports by two official bodies in Northern Ireland.

One report, a major study by the Independent Monitoring Commission, suggested that the IRA had not, as it declared last year, decommissioned its entire arsenal and some members may have retained weapons.

The other, from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, headed by Canadian General John de Chastelain, reported differences between intelligence agencies on either side of the border but concluded that decommissioning had been complete.

The IRA was meanwhile said to have reduced its activities so much that, in the words of Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain, a sea change had happened.

But he added that the relevant report "does not paint a picture of perfection."

In reaction to the reports Tony Blair called for all criminal activity to end. "Let me make it clear once again, all criminal activity has to cease. That is absolutely crucial."

While there is no suggestion that the IRA has any intention of going back to terrorist activity, yesterday's conflicting reports show distinct differences of opinion, in both intelligence and political circles, about the scale of its continuing activities.

The confusion is highly important in both security and political terms, since a restoration of devolved government is highly unlikely unless the Rev Ian Paisley agrees to lead his Democratic Unionist party into an administration which includes Sinn Fein.

Yesterday's absence of clarity means that, even though talks are due to start next week, Mr Paisley is unlikely to go into government in the foreseeable future.

Sinn Fein had a heated reaction to the suggestion that the IRA had held back guns during last year's decommissioning.

Its chief negotiator, Martin McGuinness, declared: "I think it's, with respect, bullshit of the highest order."

The main report came from the Independent Monitoring Commission, which declared it had no doubt that the IRA "has taken the strategic decision to eschew terrorism and pursue a political path."

Describing this as a difficult period for the IRA, it added: "Like an oil tanker, the organisation will take a while to turn completely, and there is likely to be added turbulence in the wash as it does so.

"It would not therefore surprise us if the picture at this stage, while positive overall, was somewhat mixed."It said the IRA had not disbanded and continued to raise funds, launder money, and was involved in the purchase of property and legitimate businesses.

It remained involved in intelligence gathering, the report said.

Some of this was for defensive purposes but mostly it was directed towards supporting the republican political strategy.

It added: "The organisation continues to accumulate information about individuals and groups, including members of the security forces, though we do not think there is any intent to mount attacks." The IMC said it had received reports that not all the IRA's weapons and ammunition were handed over for decommissioning last September.

These reports were not able to indicate precisely what is the nature or volume of any remaining weapons but suggested they were not just a limited number.

A different assessment came from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, headed by Canadian General John de Chastelain.

The General said he had been informed by security sources of intelligence that some individuals and groups within the IRA had retained a range of guns, including handguns.

There was no indication that the quantities of arms were substantial, the General said, and no suggestion that any guns had been retained with the approval of the IRA leadership.

He had discussed this with senior police officers in the Irish Republic, who told him that reliable sources had produced no intelligence suggesting any arms had been retained.

He had also contacted the IRA, he said, which insisted all its guns had been decommissioned.

The General said that "in the absence of evidence to the contrary" he still believed all the arms had gone.

The DUP's position was spelt out by MP Gregory Campbell, who said: "Obviously if the military wing of Sinn Fein still retains some guns, and their members are still engaged in some activity, no reasonable person would expect us to go into government with them.

"But we will keep applying the pressure until we get the IRA being history, not involved in any criminal activity at all, not having any guns."

- INDEPENDENT