Race for the White House: Millions of mail ballots not yet returned in key states

An absentee voter ballot is inserted into a drop box in Troy, Michigan. Photo / AP

Just days before the United States presidential election, millions of mail ballots have yet to be returned in key battleground states.

Election officials warn that time is running out for voters who want to avoid a polling place on November 4.

At least 35 million mail ballots had been returned or accepted as of today, according to data collected by AP. That surpasses the 33.3 million total mail ballots returned during the 2016 election, according to the US Election Assistance Commission.

Yet an estimated 1.9 million ballots were still outstanding in Florida, with 962,000 in Nevada, 850,000 in Michigan and a million in Pennsylvania. In most states, the deadline for ballots to be received is election day.

CNN's two final October 2016 polls had Clinton up 5% in a full trial heat, and the last was pre-Comey. (Trump needs a bigger polling mistake this cycle than last.) https://t.co/FSXR1KuB2C

— Taniel (@Taniel) October 28, 2020

"Don't wait until election day," Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf implored voters this week.

"Hand-delivering your own ballot now will give you the peace of mind that your vote will be counted, and your voice will be heard in this historic election."

Combined with early, in-person voting, at least 71.5 million votes have already been cast, more than the total number of advance votes four years ago.

Many states made it easier to request a mail ballot this year amid the coronavirus pandemic and concerns about crowded polling places on election day.

Occasional reminder that basically no major pollster still conducts polls by calling only landlines. Those doing live-interviewer calls reach (often mostly) cell phones; many others have turned to various online methods, plus some experimentation with text and mail.

— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) October 28, 2020

One challenge has been ensuring that voters who are not used to voting absentee return their ballots in time to be counted.

Compounding concerns are mail delivery delays that have persisted across the country.

Delivery data from the US Postal Service does not offer much assurance that these ballots will reach their destinations if they have not already been mailed.

Throughout the northern autumn, as ballots moved through the postal system, the agency has consistently missed its goal to have more than 95 per cent of first-class mail delivered within five days.

A remarkable thing is happening: Trump is sliding bigly among white voters across the board. Coronavirus-denial and open racism are failing him. It's a far cry from the post-2016 pundit awe of his mystical grip on the Real American White Voter. New piece:https://t.co/bMKojsa6BR

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 28, 2020

In the week that ended October 16, the most recently available weekly figures, the Postal Service reported a national on-time delivery rate of 85.5 per cent. Postal districts in many presidential battleground states failed to reach even that mark.

The district that covers the eastern part of Michigan, which includes Detroit and its suburbs, has had one of the country's worst delivery rates — just 71.5 per cent of first-class mail was on-time in mid-October.

Michigan's top election official was among those warning it was too late to try to return a ballot in the mail. She urged voters to use an official drop box or to return their ballot in person at their local election office.

Today, our trusty 'if the polls are wrong' table gets a slight makeover: it shows what would happen if the polls are as wrong as they were over the final week of 2016, rather than the final three weeks https://t.co/6qVQn80pjT pic.twitter.com/q4vs73SyI1

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 28, 2020

"We are too close to election day, and the right to vote is too important, to rely on the Postal Service to deliver absentee ballots on time," Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said.

This year, Michigan has deployed hundreds of drop boxes across the state. The state's ballot deadline is 8pm local time on election day.

The same deadline holds for Wisconsin, after the US Supreme Court rebuffed a Democratic effort to extend it. In the state's April primary, some 80,000 ballots arrived after election day.

Voters in the state appeared to be heeding the call to return ballots early, with only about 287,000 ballots outstanding out of some 1.8 million that were sent. That amounts to roughly 16 per cent yet to be returned.

Choose whether Trump or Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College. https://t.co/yVB09JyiMN pic.twitter.com/uThSajZuth

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 28, 2020

Nevada voters have more time to return their ballots, which are not due until November 10 if postmarked by election day.

There, an estimated 962,000 ballots were still outstanding as of today, although it's unlikely all those will be returned because the state decided to send a ballot to all 1.7 million active registered voters in the state. Some voters will choose to show up at the polls or just not cast a ballot.

In Florida, four million of a record six million mail-in ballots requested had been returned as of today. The state was on pace to eclipse the return rate of 2016, when 81 per cent of 3.3 million requested mail-in ballots were returned.

“If Trump isn't really losing support from his 2016 base, but Biden is gaining on Clinton's performance, where are those extra votes coming from? 
Answer: a lot is coming from voters who supported third-party/other candidates in 2016.” https://t.co/pPnyoPkGi6 https://t.co/Jxilwhnyb0

— amy walter (@amyewalter) October 28, 2020

To be counted in Florida, ballots must be received by 7 pm local time on election day.

"We are not necessarily concerned about the number of outstanding vote-by-mail ballots, other than trying to hammer home the message that postmarks will not count, and to get them in our office by election day," said Danae Rivera-Marasco, spokeswoman for the Orange County supervisor of elections.

Some voters are still waiting to receive their ballots.

Abby Leafe, a registered Democrat who lives in suburban Philadelphia's Bucks County, checked her mailbox yesterday in vain for her ballot. She hopes to vote absentee but will go to the polls if she has to.

"Making sure we have free and fair elections is worth getting Covid for," said Leafe, a 46-year-old market researcher from Newtown.

President Donald Trump is set to touch down in Arizona, where he will hold two rallies - as the Biden Campaign looks to win over voters in the former safe Republican state. @TimArvier9 #9News pic.twitter.com/DmqqzE3nZi

— 9News Australia (@9NewsAUS) October 28, 2020

In Pennsylvania, the crush of mail-in votes is a record, more than 10 times the number received by counties in 2016′s presidential election.

The current deadline for ballots in Pennsylvania to be received is three days after the election, but last-minute litigation could move that deadline to election day.

In most states, voters who requested an absentee ballot but did not receive one in time or decided not to return it can still show up at their local polling place on election day and vote.

- AP