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Home / World

Race for the White House: Debate a foretaste of chaos that could follow a Trump defeat

By Ben Riley-Smith analysis
Daily Telegraph UK·
1 Oct, 2020 12:59 AM4 mins to read

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Donald Trump avoided giving answers on his support from white supremacist groups and claimed he doesn't know who the Proud Boys are. Video / Fox / TheRecount

For Americans who made it to the end of yesterday's so-called debate - an ugly affair dominated by shouting and mud-slinging - perhaps the smallest modicum of comfort could be found in the fact that it was just words.

Yes, the very idea of political discussion - informed, insightful, evidence-based, measured - had been smashed into tiny pieces and set on fire over 90 minutes.

And yes, little clarity had emerged amid the insults.

But it was just a debate.

The same cannot be said for what is now less five weeks away.

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Like a thundercloud on the horizon, the fallout that could follow the November 3 election looms ever closer, with Americans braced for a contested result.

The reasons why some fear the weeks after the election will be every bit as chaotic as the first presidential debate are easy to identify, even before you factor in the political players.

"People think I didn’t jump in soon enough...I didn’t realize—and there was no way you could, hindsight being 20/20—that this was going to be the president’s strategy."
Indeed. Who could've foreseen that Trump would interrupt/yell over Biden at the debate? https://t.co/tWsvuc3gEW

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) October 1, 2020

Firstly there is postal voting.

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A record-breaking number of people are expected to vote by mail this cycle, given the coronavirus pandemic making casting a ballot in person more risky. That makes this year unprecedented.

Many states are set up for a small percentage of voters posting their ballots. For some, in this election it could be over 50 per cent.

It could be days before they count all the mail-in votes, delaying the result. Plus many will be filled in wrong.

President Donald Trump gestures to supporters as he arrives at Minneapolis Saint Paul International Airport.
President Donald Trump gestures to supporters as he arrives at Minneapolis Saint Paul International Airport.

Then there is the Supreme Court.

Currently it has an even number of justices - eight - since Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing.

If President Donald Trump's nominee is not confirmed in time, any legal challenge could result in an even split and no majority - a deadlock.

If she is rushed through, then she risks looking partisan.

And then there is Trump.

Again yesterday he declined to promise categorically to accept the election result; instead building on his six-month campaign portraying mail-in ballots as wide open to fraud, despite studies uncovering little evidence of this.

Trump urged his voters "go into the polls and watch very carefully".

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"If I see tens of thousands of ballots being manipulated, I can't go along with that," the President warned.

Supporters welcome Democratic presidential candidate former Vice-President Joe Biden to Amtrak's Pittsburgh Train Station.
Supporters welcome Democratic presidential candidate former Vice-President Joe Biden to Amtrak's Pittsburgh Train Station.

Which begged the question: then what?

There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios that can be conjured up over the election fallout.

If one side has a blowout win that is beyond doubt on election night, such concerns may never materialise. But, many DC types fear, in a close result they will.

Put simply, the accusation is that Trump will not accept a narrow defeat. Unlike in 2016, he now has his hands on the levers of power.

And critics are already pointing to the scrum of a debate as supporting evidence.

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Concerned the president could urge supporters onto the street? Trump did little to condemn white nationalists and tell militias to stay home, despite repeated pressing.

Fear Trump will not respect the result? He refused to categorically commit to as much.

But even if this hand-wringing - and there is a lot of it in Washington DC, growing louder every day - is proved ill-judged, and Trump does lose and accepts it, there is the orderly handover of power to consider.

Joe Biden greets the largest crowd he has likely seen since March as he exits the train station in Greensburg, Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/uBmc6jXoKf

— Tyler Pager (@tylerpager) September 30, 2020

An election victor does not ride into power the morning after the vote, bleary eyed and jubilant.

Instead, there is a gap of 79 days between the election on November 3 and the inauguration on January 20.

Given the degree of mistrust between both sides on display in Cleveland, who would bet on an orderly transition if it comes to that?

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Would the Trump Administration work constructively on the handover with their political rivals, as precedent demands?

These are the questions that hang over the coming months. The mess of a debate is a reminder of how fractious political debate has become as election day approaches.

But it is a reminder, too, that the real chaos could come the day after.

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