European leaders strained every diplomatic sinew to repair the damage from the infamous Oval Office clash between Zelenskyy, Trump and JD Vance in February.
There was cautious optimism that they had begun to bring the US President around to their way of thinking. Trump and Zelenskyy’s talks at the Pope’s funeral felt like a game-changer.
More recently, the mercurial American called Russia’s Army a “paper tiger” and threatened Putin with tariffs. But last week, after a phone call with the Russian President, cracks began to appear.
First, Trump chose Viktor Orban of Hungary to host his next ‘peace summit’ with Putin. Then he told Zelenskyy that he would not be supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles.
The tables appear to be turning away from Ukraine.
Orban is Putin’s closest ally in the European Union, an opponent of Western sanctions on the Kremlin, and no friend of Zelenskyy.
He is, though, a darling of the Maga conservatives who want to stop the US from paying for a war Orban insists Ukraine can never win.
“American weapons remain absolutely crucial for Ukraine’s defence,” an EU diplomat told Politico. “But with a single phone call, Putin appears to have changed President Trump’s mind on Ukraine once again.”
The British-French-led Coalition of the Willing calculates the best strategy is to make preparations for a peace deal they think may never come.
The thinking is to placate Trump by going through the motions in the hope he will eventually realise Putin is — as the President once said — “tapping him along”.
Zelenskyy is expected at a European Council summit in Brussels later this week to drum up more support from the EU after the disappointing Washington meeting.
EU foreign ministers met in Luxembourg to try to break the deadlock over a plan to seize frozen Russian assets and use them to help Ukraine.
Reports that Trump is once again echoing Kremlin talking points painfully expose the limits of European influence.
As the Gaza ceasefire showed, Trump thinks Europe’s role is to do what it is told, cheer him along, and, crucially, get its wallet out.
When it comes to the reconstruction of Gaza, the EU will be a payer but not a player.
European leaders still flew en masse to Egypt to praise Trump.
With Ukraine, the UK, EU countries, and Nato allies will be expected not only to pay but to do the heavy lifting on security.
But they are not in the negotiating room where the future of Europe’s security will be decided.
If you are not at the table, you risk being on the menu. The truth is the UK and EU have no choice but to accept a Ukraine peace deal, if it comes.
The leaders of Germany, Poland, Finland, and the UK went on social media to show their support for Zelenskyy over the weekend.
The UK Prime Minister, French President and German Chancellor are just backseat drivers.
They can try to correct matters beyond their control but are easily ignored.
As for Trump, he seemed to have executed another U-turn. He told reporters on Air Force One yesterday that the Donbas should be left divided, as it is now.
Europe is playing diplomatic roulette.
It can only hope that once the wheel stops spinning, the bouncing ball of the US President’s loyalties lands on Ukraine’s colour.
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