Primary could seal Kerry's march to nomination

By RUPERT CORNWELL in Washington

Wisconsin holds a keenly watched primary tomorrow that could set the seal on Senator John Kerry's march to the Democratic nomination, and finally drive Howard Dean from a contest that only six weeks ago he seemed set to win.

In public, hope springs eternal from the Dean camp.

"We are not dropping out after Tuesday [today], period, no matter what," the former Vermont governor told a TV interviewer. But the facts point in the opposite direction.

Dean rallies, once overspill affairs, are now studded with empty seats. After losses in 16 straight primaries (of which Mr Kerry has won 14) no travel schedule for the candidate has been released for the rest of the week, while top aides already talk as if the campaign is over.

Indeed, Mr Dean's national campaign chairman, Steve Grossman, was quoted by the Associated Press has saying it was all but certain Mr Kerry would prevail and that, if he was a clear loser today, Mr Dean would throw his backing behind the Massachusetts senator.

Nor is there any suggestion in the polls that one of the more remarkable boom-and-bust candidacies of recent times has a sensational third act comeback in store.

An eve-of-vote Reuters/Zogby survey gave Mr Kerry 47 per cent, far ahead of Dean, with 23 per cent, and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, with 20 per cent.

The last, best chance of halting the Kerry bandwagon now probably resides with Mr Edwards.

But he needs at the very least today to make serious inroads into Mr Kerry's lead. Otherwise he may find it impossible to attract the necessary financial support to carry his effort into 'Super Tuesday' on March 2, when 10 states, including major prizes like California, New York and Ohio, hold primaries in which 1,159 delegates - more than half the total required to win - will be at stake.

Mr Edwards secured one boost yesterday with the endorsement of Wisconsin's biggest newspaper, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - a move reminiscent of the endorsement from the largest Iowa paper before that state's caucuses on January 19, which helped propel him into an unexpected second place finish.

The North Carolina senator also provided the best moments in an otherwise insipid candidate's debate on Sunday evening. "No so fast, John Kerry," he interjected at one point, emphasising that the primaries were still a contest, not a coronation.

Mr Edwards then pounced when his opponent gave a long and vague answer to a question on whether he felt responsibility for US combat deaths in Iraq after his vote in October 2002 authorising President Bush to go to war - a vote that has caused Mr Kerry constant problems on the campaign trail.

After Mr Kerry's meanderings, Mr Edwards shot back, "That's the longest answer to a yes-or-no question I've ever heard," and then proceeded to give a succinct reply of his own.

But whether these small successes will be enough to turn the tide in Wisconsin is unclear.

Democrats seem to have decided that the Massachusetts Senator has the best chance of defeating Mr Bush in November - and for all the praise heaped on Mr Edward's positive message and his skill on the stump, this has not yet translated into votes.

Mr Dean for his part is being urged to make a graceful and unifying exit if, as expected, he fails to make a breakthrough. His aides say this will be so, but Mr Dean himself insists that while he will "re-assess his campaign after Wisconsin, he will press on, perhaps as a permanent grass-roots movement.

His stubbornness reflects an understandable failure to grasp how far and fast he has fallen. Another factor, however, is his low esteem for Mr Kerry, whom the former Vermont governor regards as an opportunistic machine politician, prepared to do anything to win votes.

While polls show Mr Kerry ahead of President Bush if the election were held tomorrow, the Democrats could receive a new fillip today, by winning a special election for Kentucky's 6th Congressional district.

If they do, it would be the first time they have captured a Republican-held seat in a special election since 1991. In the 2000 Presidential election, Mr Bush carried Kentucky by 15 points over Al Gore.

- INDEPENDENT