Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Photo / AP
US President Donald Trump's Russia defence increasingly hinges upon the idea that it's a baseless "witch-hunt" - and that it maybe needs to be shut down.
A necessary piece of that argument: There is a "deep state" working to take him down that isn't operating in good faith.
"Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added...does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!," Trump tweeted yesterday.
And today: "A total WITCH HUNT with massive conflicts of interest!"
And as we approach what may be the final stages of the Mueller investigation, it's becoming increasingly evident just how compelling that case could be - at least to the people Trump needs to believe it.
But it's not even just Republicans; a new poll from Monmouth University shows 74 per cent of Americans believe some form of the "deep state" probably exists. And that belief is completely bipartisan, with 72 per cent of Republicans and 72 per cent of Democrats subscribing to it.
The numbers are significantly higher than there were a year ago in a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Back then, 48 per cent believed there was a "deep state," while 35 per cent dismissed it as a conspiracy theory.
The wording of the questions are important here, even as they are somewhat similar. The Post-ABC poll defined the deep state as "military, intelligence and government officials who try to secretly manipulate government policy," while Monmouth defines it as "a group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy."
The Monmouth poll has a lower bar, allowing for the deep state to merely have influence on national policy, while the former requires it to "manipulate" that policy. Perhaps many Americans simply view the CIA and the NSA, for instance, as directing national policy and think that sounds something like a deep state.
The Post-ABC poll also gave people two choices, with one being that it was a "conspiracy theory." The Monmouth poll allowed four degrees of belief in the deep state, and a plurality - 47 per cent - said the deep state "probably exists." An additional 27 per cent said it "definitely exists."
We have 51 GOP Senators and 238 GOP members of Congress, and so far only two, McCain & Graham have spoken in defense of the Constitution & the institutions of the Republic against Trump’s escalating assault on Mueller. https://t.co/LoTOWcrCYz
— Philip Gourevitch (@PGourevitch) March 19, 2018
And that's not the only evidence that the cement on the deep-state conspiracy theory isn't exactly dry. When Monmouth asked whether people had even heard of the deep state, just 13 per cent said they were "very familiar" with the concept, while 23 per cent said they were "somewhat familiar." Sixty-three per cent were not at all familiar - and yet even many of them subscribed to the idea when it was defined for them.
But that's really all that matters, as far as Trump goes. Polls have long showed that substantial portions of the GOP base don't believe Russia interfered in the 2016 election and that it didn't aim to elect Trump.
A Quinnipiac poll in January showed that 83 per cent of Republicans agreed with Trump that the investigation was a "witch-hunt," while just 12 per cent said it was a "legitimate" investigation.
President Trump's approval rating among white evangelicals is 78% in a new Pew poll.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 19, 2018
That’s up from 72% in January, when allegations of the Stormy Daniels affair and hush money payments were first coming to light. pic.twitter.com/iAXcPobF0B
Against that backdrop, it's difficult to assume that anything Mueller finds is going to move Trump's base and pressure congressional Republicans to act - either through impeachment or anything else.
This weekend might have been about laying the groundwork for firing Mueller, sure, but mostly it seemed to be about solidifying the base for the political battle to come after the Mueller probe.
And this poll shows just how attractive Trump's alternate explanation can be to people who would very much like an excuse to give Trump the benefit of the doubt.
All of this is worth recalling whenever the Mueller probe concludes - and if it's allowed to conclude.
POLITICO investigation: The 285 people connected to the Russia probes https://t.co/9wHqVLTs2m pic.twitter.com/XsLZ5It6cu
— POLITICO (@politico) March 19, 2018
President Donald Trump has a 40.5% approval rating. https://t.co/gFuJdJjGOg pic.twitter.com/55yk0grlGB
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 19, 2018