Political storms give Gillard a chance to prove her mettle

Gillard faces a test today as Australian Parliament sits for the first time this year. Photo / Getty Images

Prime Minister Julia Gillard's real test of leadership begins today as Parliament holds its first sitting for the year amid fiery debate over flood relief and with a controversial reform agenda ahead.

Gillard is starting off on the back foot - she needs to pull independent backing for her minority Government together as early polling points to fragile support and likely scrutiny of her leadership.

But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, despite receiving good news in yesterday's Newspoll in the Australian, has his own difficulties, including murmurs against his political judgement.

Gillard's first priority will be the passage of her bill to raise a one-off A$1.8 billion ($2.37 billion) levy, adding to deep spending cuts in the May Budget to fund the Government's estimated A$5.6 billion bill to cope with flooding across the nation.

It is likely more cuts will be needed in the wake of Cyclone Yasi and continued heavy flooding in Victoria; reports suggest Gillard will target middle-class welfare through tighter criteria for family tax benefits.

Gillard's levy has won popular support with Newspoll reporting that 55 per cent of those who will be paying it (the flood-affected and low-paid will be exempt) including many Coalition supporters, approve of the plan.

But the levy will be opposed by the Opposition, which claims the Government has more budgetary fat to trim and intends presenting a A$1.8 billion package of potential further cuts to back its argument.

Newspoll said the Government, which is clinging to power with the qualified support of three independents and a Greens MP, was struggling to keep its head above political waters.

It said support for the Prime Minister and her Government was at its lowest since she wrested power from predecessor Kevin Rudd last year, with Labor's primary vote dropping to 32 per cent - while Coalition support rose 3 per cent to 44 per cent.

On the two-party-preferred system that decides Australian elections, the Coalition was ahead of Labor 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

And while satisfaction with Gillard remained unchanged on 45 per cent, dissatisfaction with the way she was doing her job rose four points to 42 per cent. Her standing as preferred Prime Minister dropped four points to 48 per cent. Abbott's rating as preferred Prime Minister rose to 35 per cent.

Yesterday, anticipating renewed speculation in the wake of Newspoll, Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese told ABC radio that Gillard's leadership was "absolutely" safe.

And a Morgan poll last week said Gillard's position might not be so bad.

It showed Gillard's rating as preferred Prime Minister had risen three points to 49 per cent since December, with Abbott sliding by a similar margin to 36 per cent.

And while approval of the way she was handling her job had slipped three points to 46 per cent, satisfaction with Abbott had plummeted 11 per cent to 39 per cent.

Abbott remains under fire for approving a Liberal Party appeal for money to fight Gillard's flood levy, at a time when donations are being urgently sought for relief funds.

Abbott has refused to back down, even after Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey told the ABC yesterday: "Obviously the party made a mistake. It was wrong."

Abbott's position has raised questions about his political judgment, especially as the amount it will pluck from taxpayers pockets is so small - between A$1 and A$5 a week, with the flood-affected and those earning less than A$50,000 a year exempt. Some commentators have suggested this line could gain some traction within the Liberals.

Distinguished press gallery veteran Laurie Oakes wrote in the Sunday Telegraph: "There is a small group of Liberal MPs who would like to see Abbott rolled and others who would not take much persuading if the leader's ratings do not improve quickly."

Abbott's deputy, Julie Bishop, also remains under threat from ambitious finance spokesman Andrew Robb.

But it is a long year ahead, with testing issues for both leaders, including carbon pricing, the controversial mining tax, education and health reforms, and the continued - disputed - rollout of the national broadband network.