Party lead swings as haggling drags on

CANBERRA - Australia's future continues to see-saw as the three country independents who will choose the next government continue discussions in Canberra and the major parties squabble over competing claims to legitimacy that the kingmakers have no interest in hearing.

The fourth independent, Tasmanian Andrew Wilkie, appeared close to making up his mind yesterday, while tensions within the Nationals, the Coalition's junior partner, put the Opposition's final seat count in doubt.

It is also clear that independents Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott are under strong pressure from within their electorates to install Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

And while the threat of another election hangs over the negotiations, no one is keen on the prospect: the major parties' war chests are empty, and a new poll has found that a significant number of people would change their vote in a new ballot.

The Ogilvy Illumination poll published in Fairfax newspapers said that 13 per cent of voters would make a different choice. The Sydney Morning Herald said voters in New South Wales and Queensland - the states which recorded the biggest swing against Labor - were more inclined than those in other states to vote differently.

Although the poll did not indicate which party would benefit, an earlier Morgan poll also found that voters were likely to change their minds, with Labor and the Coalition both gaining at the expense of the Greens and independents.

Abbott has denied claims he was trying to force a new election, and caretaker Prime Minister Julia Gillard rejected a new vote: "The Australian people voted for this parliament (and) our job is to make it work."

Late yesterday the Australian Electoral Commission gave Labor 72 seats and the Coalition 73, with four independents and one Green. But new West Australian National MP Tony Crook, who dislodged the former Liberal member, has said he will sit on the crossbenches as an independent, reducing the Coalition's seats to 72 - although he is unlikely to support a Labor Government. Adam Bandt, the Greens' first federal MP, will side with Labor, effectively increasing Gillard's seats to 73.

Abbott was yesterday referring to the Coalition as the "Government-in-waiting", supporting his claims with a result that gave the Coalition about 360,000 more primary votes than Labor, and a tiny swing in two-party preferred votes that late on Monday night nudged the Opposition ahead.

Gillard had previously claimed legitimacy on an earlier Labor two-party preferred lead. But by late yesterday the pendulum had inched back toward Labor, giving Gillard a hair's breadth lead of 50.02 per cent to 49.98 per cent.

Either way, the independents have said the figures carried no weight with their deliberations.

"The first preference or two-party preferred vote might provide a talking point but both are constitutionally irrelevant to the formation of government," Windsor told ABC radio.

Katter, from far north Queensland, and NSW MPs Windsor and Oakeshott have agreed to work together in deciding which leader should become prime minister, and yesterday continued meetings with heads of departments. Their decision may not be known until next week.

As well as policies in broadband, infrastructure, regional development, transport, resources, health and ageing, energy, climate change and water, all want parliamentary reforms to weaken the two-party system.

Gillard said reform of the House of Representatives was now clearly a priority, and promised unspecified changes. "I want to renovate that Labor tradition, to deliver lasting and durable improvements to our democracy, to permanently uplift our system of government."

Abbott has proposed a new parliamentary reform committee.

But beyond competing political arguments, Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott face electorates that voted overwhelmingly against the Government - Labor's primary vote ran from 8 per cent to 20 per cent in the three seats - and trashed the Greens.

Commentary in their local newspapers opposed Labor, supported by polling. An "unscientific" poll in the Port Macquarie News in Oakeshott's seat of Lyne found 54.6 per cent for the Coalition and 31 per cent for Labor, while another in Tamworth's Northern Daily Leader said 70 per cent believed Windsor should also back Abbott.

In Tasmania, Wilkie has declined to join the trio and has sent his own list of 22 local and national priorities to Gillard and Abbott.