Paris terror attacks: Why was France hit again?

Rescuers help an injured man after yesterday's attacks at the Stade de France. Photo/ EPA

The Paris attacks have outraged the world. But, sadly, they will not have surprised French authorities.

Every Western capital knows Islamist extremists would love to strike a blow at its heart. But few are so tantalising a target as Paris.

Why?

France fights jihadists worldwide; has one of the largest Muslim populations in Europe - and arguably the most divided society.

It also has a steady stream of guns pouring in from across continental Europe's porous borders. It is a potent, explosive mix - as shown by the Charlie Hebdo attacks of January, and now the Paris shootings.

"This is for Syria," one of the Paris attackers reportedly said. But he could have said it was for Mali, or Libya, or Iraq.

France takes pride in its proactive stance against Islamists worldwide, especially in the face of what is frequently seen as British and American retreat.

More than 10,000 French troops are deployed abroad - at least 3000 in Western Africa, 2000 in Central and 3200 in Iraq.

French intervention in Mali, against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in 2013 was seen as pivotal in the weakening of the jihadi group.

A fortnight ago a leader of an AQIM affiliate urged his followers to attack France in retaliation for their presence in the region.

And last week President Francois Hollande announced that France will deploy an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf to assist the fight against Isis.

A key problem, however, is internal. The feelings of isolation and exclusion can be overwhelming.

Few Muslims are high-profile role models in business or politics and France's stridently secular state, the banning of the burqa and the power of the Front National have not helped to ease tensions between communities.

Mohamed Merah, the Toulouse shooter of 2012, grew up in a tough suburb, began as a small-time delinquent, was sent to prison, and emerged a hardened jihadi with "meaning" in life.

Mehdi Nemmouche, the murderer of four people in Brussels in May last year, was also radicalised in prison. He travelled to Syria when he was freed and came back to attack the Jewish museum.

Cherif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly followed a similar trajectory of lack of opportunity, descent into criminality, prison and radicalisation.

Inside France's prisons, 70 per cent of the inmates are estimated to be Muslims - by law, France cannot ask a person to state their religion, so official data is unavailable.

In England and Wales, by comparison, Muslims account for 14 per cent of the prison population, according to Home Office statistics, and 5 per cent of the population nationwide.

In the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attacks the Telegraph reported France was struggling with radicalisation inside its prisons, and unlike Britain had very few imams to enter the cells, and limited de-radicalisation programmes.

In April, Rachida Dati, the former justice minister and now a special rapporteur on radicalisation, said France was not doing enough to fight the power of Islamist radicals behind bars.

Another constant source of concern for French authorities is the ease with which weapons can be trafficked into France.

Belgium has long struggled with illegal arms; it is believed the Charlie Hebdo attackers sourced their weapons there. The Balkans are also favoured shopping destinations; the Balkan Wars have left the region awash with cheap, nondescript weapons.

We do not yet know who carried out the horrendous Paris attacks, and why. But, sadly, it is something that the French authorities knew could happen at any time.