Osama's trail cold after near capture in Pakistan

Osama bin Laden

Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, has admitted that the trail for Osama bin Laden has never been colder, despite the ploughing of millions of dollars worth of Pakistani and US army resources into the hunt for the al Qaeda leader.

In an admission that will raise questions in Washington over the reasons for the continuing futility of the search for America's most wanted enemy, Gen Musharraf claimed his security forces had come close to capturing the terrorist figurehead last summer.

But since those operations in the anarchic tribal lands along the border with Afghanistan, they had lost track of Bin Laden's movements.

"There was a time when the dragnet had closed and we thought we knew roughly the area where he possibly could be," Musharraf said.

"That was, I think, some time back ... maybe about eight to 10 months back.

"But after that, this is such a game, this intelligence, that they escape. They can move and then you lose contact."

The startling admission was the first confirmation for some time from Pakistan's ruler that he believed bin Laden had been on his soil, and has provoked new heart-searching among the American military establishment over how the hunt is being conducted.

The US military spends nearly one billion dollars a month in Afghanistan, the Pakistan army has killed or arrested hundreds of al Qaeda operatives, and every possible tool has been used from satellites in space to TV advertising.

In the past Musharraf has always sought to play down speculation that al Qaeda's leader was hiding on his side of the border, perhaps out of fears of the political fallout at home if the symbolic capture takes place inside Pakistan.

Those potential consequences and the cost of support for US manhunters inside Pakistan - now including CIA teams in the tribal areas and FBI investigators in the cities - were underlined yesterday as it emerged that yet another would-be assassin had been arrested after a string of failed Islamist plots to kill the General.

After the interview, Pakistani officials said privately that for months they have had no idea where bin Laden could be and they have no information on possible planned terrorist attacks.

In a bid to apply a positive spin, they claimed the silence from al Qaeda indicates they have destroyed its network inside Pakistan.

An indication of America's thoughts on the most-wanted man's whereabouts was a major TV and radio advertising campaign seeking to win over possible supporters of al Qaeda by stressing the violence terrorists have brought to Pakistan and reminding viewers of the USD 25 million bounty still on bin Laden's head.

Most security experts in the region believe the Saudi is still hiding somewhere in the rugged mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Waziristan, a tribal territory adjoining Khost Province in Afghanistan where many of the CIA's operatives are based, has always been a likely hiding place for bin Laden and other leading al Qaeda figures.

Last spring and summer Pakistan's army launched ferocious military operations into the region, which has never been controlled by Islamabad, killing hundreds of foreign fighters and tribesmen in missions which were bitterly criticised by Musharraf's Islamist opponents at home.

The General's comments yesterday appeared to confirm the rumour that was widely circulated at the time - that bin Laden's capture in Waziristan had been close.

It marks the second time he has slipped free of a tightening noose - Bin Laden is widely believed to have escaped US and British special forces at the battle of Tora Bora inside Afghanistan at the beginning of 2002.

Since then he has routinely taunted his hunters with videotaped messages delivered to Al-Jazeera's office in Islamabad.

The most recent one, calling for fresh attacks on America, popped up just before the US Presidential election in November, although there was no indication where it was made.

Few in the American military believe he is still in Afghanistan, patrolled by 18,000 US combat troops and scoured with satellites and the latest electronic eavesdropping devices.

The risk of a US combat mission unexpectedly raiding a village where he is hiding is thought to be too great.

Coincidentally yesterday, America's new top military officer in Afghanistan sought to play down the military's failure to find bin Laden, stressing instead the successes of hearts and minds policies conducted by the military.

Most experts still point to Pakistan, where large numbers of tribesmen hostile to the Islamabad government sympathise with al Qaeda. Afghan security sources claim Taleban and al Qaeda terrorists live openly in towns in Waziristan and elsewhere in the tribal lands.

Other possible hiding places for bin Laden have been suggested, ranging from Pakistani Kashmir, where jihadists fighting Indian rule are based, Yemen, where he has family links, and lawless African states like Somalia or Sudan, where he has taken refuge before.

- Independent