Ohio last throw of Edwards' dice

By RUPERT CORNWELL in Cleveland

In this raw city on the shores of Lake Erie - the biggest industrial centre of what is arguably America's most pivotal state politically - John Edwards is making his last stand in his seemingly doomed bid for the White House.

Exuding cheer and charm as ever, the North Carolina senator addressed a rally in a Cleveland church hall in a bid to win over the wavering voters of Ohio.

If he fails, then almost certainly his quest will be over - in 2004 at least.

But whether he wins or loses when Ohio and nine other states vote on so-called Super Tuesday (Wednesday NZ time), a new national political star has been born. He was a virtual unknown when he entered this presidential campaign. He will leave it as one of the brightest names in the Democratic firmament, one that will figure in every future presidential calculation by his party.

This time around, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts bestrides the field, having won 18 of the first 20 primaries and caucuses, amassing along the way 600-plus delegates to the nominating convention in his native Boston in the last week of July. Edwards has fewer than 200.

Theoretically, the game is not over. In the 10 states that vote, including three huge prizes in California, New York and Ohio, 1151 delegates are at stake - more than half the total needed to nominate. Mathematically, an Edwards surge could turn the contest on its head - but it almost certainly will not happen.

California and New York, if the polls are right, are in Kerry's pocket, as are Maryland and the four New England states, including his native Massachusetts. Which leaves three possibilities for Edwards: Minnesota, Georgia, and the absolute must-win prize of Ohio.

Georgia is in the South, so an Edwards victory would mean little. Minnesota is a quirky northern state and too small to make a difference at this stage.

But Ohio matters. It is big, with 140 delegates at stake. It is a quintessential swing state, without which no Republican has ever won the White House.

Most important, as an old industrial powerhouse which has seen jobs haemorrhage to low-wage producers overseas, it is highly receptive to Edwards's protectionist economic platform.

If his anti-trade "two Americas" message resonates anywhere it is Ohio. The latest polls put him 20 points behind Kerry. But Dennis White, Ohio's Democratic state chairman, says: "The primary is wide open, the Kerry lead could disappear real fast."

A loss in Ohio on the other hand, could knock away the last prop of his campaign.

Even so, it might not be the end of election year 2004 for Edwards. If their chummy non-aggression pact in last week's candidates' debate in Los Angeles is any indication, he must be among the favourites to be the Massachusetts senator's running mate, and certainly for a senior job in a Kerry Cabinet.

- INDEPENDENT