KEY POINTS:
1) LANDSLIDE VICTORY IS POSSIBLE
On a day when John McCain was supposed to talk new economic initiatives but delayed, Barack Obama released his own plan ... and Wall St helpfully went up 11 per cent, keeping the news focus firmly on finances.
The markets were buoyed
by growing confidence in the global rescue measures but it illustrates Obama's knack of swimming with the political tide as opposed to McCain's habitual paddle against it.
Yesterday, as Obama stressed specifics on job creation and personal responsibility, McCain threw away his "maverick" cloak, tried on his "fighter" coat from the Republican convention and talked in generalities.
"'We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change.
The hour is late; our troubles are getting worse; our enemies watch. We have to act immediately. We have to change direction now. We have to fight."
Last week when McCain and the Republicans seemed shuttered away in an anger management session, trying to shift the campaign chatter from the economy, Obama was dancing in tune with the voters' anti-bickering mood, talking about a future political style where a good idea was a good idea regardless of whether it came from a Democrat or a Republican.
The election race is being run against a background in which 90 per cent of people believe the country is on the wrong track and the economy/ jobs is rated the top issue by 53 per cent, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll.
When asked who they trust to handle the economy, voters picked Obama by 53-37. When asked who they trust to help the middle class, they chose Obama by 59-31.
Democrats easily outnumber Republicans this year and Independents make up a quarter of the electorate. AP reports that independents are sounding more like Democrats than Republicans on the economy.
In an AP poll, 82 per cent of independents said they worry the economic crisis will inflict a long-term toll on them, compared with 89 per cent of Democrats and 65 per cent of Republicans.
Were the election to be held today, there's little doubt Obama (or at least an Obama minion) would be "measuring the drapes" at the White House, as McCain said yesterday.
Obama's RCP average poll lead yesterday was 7.4, and he has had a stable advantage for three weeks. RCP estimates he would win 364 Electoral College votes to McCain's 174 when 270 are needed to win. A landslide is possible.
2) GAP MAY CLOSE ON DECISION-DAY
Yesterday's Gallup poll had Obama ahead by 10 points among all voters and by 7 points among likely voters. The New York Times reports that only one candidate - Ronald Reagan - in Gallup polling since 1936 has run down such a large gap.
And Reagan was the outsider (Obama) running against an incumbent Jimmy Carter (McCain represents the ruling party).
Other candidates have come close, with Al Gore making up seven points in the last 10 days to win the popular vote but lose the EC. The New York Times says that "since polling began, the pattern is that swings in opinion get smaller as election day approaches".
The unknown factor is what part racism could play. Obama's support could be overstated. Potentially, he could make a major mistake.
Obama is clearly the favourite, but it may end up closer than it appears now.
3) REVIVAL BY THE COMEBACK KID
McCain can still become the ultimate comeback kid. Should the markets settle, should McCain come up with interesting economic ideas, should he KO Obama in tomorrow's debate, should his campaign stick to consistent messages, should a major security crisis occur ...
A lot has to suddenly go his way and he is being out-spent by Obama in key states. It is still possible for McCain to win, although that is the least likely scenario.
