KEY POINTS:
The invisible men of the Australian election campaign finally took corporeal form yesterday in a debate that most of their voters would have missed and which added little to the race for the November 24 election.
For 90 glorious minutes at the National Press Club in Canberra, a
short stroll from Parliament House, Treasurer Peter Costello and Labor counterpart Wayne Swan went head-to-head on national television and internet streaming.
Both have been overshadowed by their respective bosses since Prime Minister John Howard called the election just over two weeks ago and launched into the presidential style of campaigning against Labor leader Kevin Rudd that has become the norm for Australian elections.
When they wound up their debate, there was no clear winner. The Channel Nine worm, back on the screen despite Government dislike, gave a marginal victory to Swan, while polling on the Fairfax newspapers website an hour after the debate handed the Shadow Treasurer a resounding 62 per cent to 38 per cent victory.
But other polling reversed this result: 63 per cent of Sky News viewers gave the debate to Costello, as did 64 per cent of respondents on the News Ltd site.
Given the intense media focus on Howard and Rudd and the billions of dollars in promises each is rolling out, and on such issues as climate change where both parties have inserted boots into mouths, yesterday's economic debate is unlikely to register on the ballot box pulse.
Costello did take the stage with a bit more bounce, following a Newspoll in that morning's Australian which showed, in the words of the newspaper's poll analyst, Sol Lebovic, that the position of the Coalition had improved from disastrous to bad.
After its hammering in the polls last week, the Government clawed back the worst of its losses to close the gap with Labor to 8 percentage points in the two-party preferred vote that determines Australian elections.
This would still hand Labor government by a comfortable margin but, if continued in a trend of narrowing margins that has marked previous elections, could place Howard within sight of once again snatching victory from apparently certain defeat.
On a personal note for Costello, the poll also showed that 53 per cent of voters considered the Treasurer better able to manage the economy, against 21 per cent for Swan.
But within this result were 6 per cent who thought neither was better than the other, and a huge 20 per cent who were uncertain. Given Costello's prominence after 11 years in the job and an unbroken run of low-inflation, low-unemployment growth, this emphasises the great uncertainties facing the Government.
Costello is also the man who will become prime minister if the Government is returned, and despite perceptions to the contrary, has played a bigger role in the campaign than in previous contests.
Swan has served only in the relative obscurity of shadow ministries, and has been shadow treasurer for just three years.
Other confidential polling has been less kind to Costello. The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday reported that a sample of Liberal Party focus group research leaked to the newspaper showed that Costello was hovering beneath voters' horizons and the perception of him remains negative.
Labor polling reported in Brisbane's Courier-Mail found that 70 per cent of swinging voters considered the Treasurer arrogant, with other descriptions including smug, snide, out of touch and untrustworthy.
Yesterday, Costello refused to be drawn on when he would move into Howard's shoes, saying that he would be happy to continue serving as Treasurer for a long period.
Swan was equally concerned to kill any thoughts of a Labor leadership contest if Rudd wins: "I commit to serving as Kevin Rudd's Treasurer for at least 10 years."
Costello worked to scare voters with Swan's inexperience, citing his record over 11 years. Swan's come back: "I would have more experience on day one of the job than Mr Costello did when he went in."
Swan scored with worm-watchers when he spoke of the future, industrial relations, tax reform and broadband internet; Costello focused on wealth creation, higher real wages and lower unemployment, and his large ambitions for a large country.
Both won approval when they promised action on hospitals and education.
