KEY POINTS:
A man in his late fifties pushed a home-made bicycle through the crowds gathered for an impromptu political rally in Ebworth, a rural suburb of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare. His shoes were made of strips of rubber tyre, an old skill the fighters learned during the hardships of the
independence struggle.
They marked Gibson Nyandoro out as a war veteran as clearly as if he had been wearing a sign around his neck, and as people saw him they stopped singing. Some of the bolder ones began to boo and hiss.
War veterans are Robert Mugabe's faithful, men who have given his presidency and his Zanu-PF party their unwavering loyalty for almost 28 years. They are the ones who, armed with machetes and guns, did his dirty work for him during the violent land seizures of 2000 when white farmers were terrorised and beaten and forced off their land. They are Zanu-PF to the core.
So when, five days ago, Nyandoro, 58, rattled his bike into the centre of the opposition rally - he said later he thought his heart would stop in fear - and told the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate and her supporters that a group of his comrades had sent him to ask if they would be welcome to join, it was an unprecedented act.
It was time for a change, he said, to great cheers. "We don't want this power-hungry dictator any more. We have lost our dignity through this ruling party and have gained nothing in return."
Zimbabweans go to the polls on Sunday and they want the unthinkable - the 84-year-old Mugabe gone. But the question is, how will this be achieved? In Harare last week, as Mugabe's three-helicopter convoy thrashed across the sky, breaking the quiet of an under-worked capital city, the talk was of the President's late-night passing of a new decree - no longer would his police have to remain outside polling stations on Saturday, as stated in law. They would, instead, be posted inside, ostensibly to help the illiterate or the disabled with their ballot papers. It was the latest in a series of last-minute tinkerings with election legislation by the ruling party.
"It's a disgrace and we will challenge it in the courts," said the MDC senator Sekai Holland. "Ordinary people are terrified of the police and many will be deterred from going to vote at all, if not intimidated into voting for Mugabe and Zanu-PF."
No one knows yet how much of an effort Mugabe may put into trying to rig the election. There are about 68 official election monitors invited in from outside the country and about 11,000 polling stations. The Government has refused to make the voters' roll available for inspection to the opposition, but there are claims from government sources that it contains the names of dead people.
There are four choices on the presidential ballot paper: Robert Mugabe, the former Finance Minister, Simba Makoni, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and an unknown independent called Langton Towungana, who seems to have given up before he even started. Under Zimbabwean law, when several candidates contest the presidency the winning candidate must receive at least 51 per cent of the vote, otherwise a second round between the two leading candidates must be held within 21 days.
Whether it goes to a second round or not, there will be two results - he who gets the lion's share of the vote and he who will take power. Many feel they are depressingly unlikely to be the same person. One of the few polls of voters Zimbabwean academics attempted to carry out showed Tsvangirai leading, with Mugabe second and Makoni third. But with more than 20 per cent of people questioned refusing to answer, this can only be seen as the roughest of guides.
There are very real fears that the resultant political discord and outrage at an election seen as unfair will boil over into violence in Zimbabwe's more polarised and volatile areas.
But Senator Holland says she is trying hard to stop talk of violence among her own young supporters. "They're not glorifying violence, they want to defend themselves if it comes. It's unavoidable that the Zanu culture of violence has permeated our whole society."
In an exclusive downtown Harare hotel last week, Makoni's once unthinkable political campaign was in full swing after months of secrecy and plotting.
Makoni announced his defection from the party on February 5 - Super Tuesday, as his supporters dubbed it - in order to stand as an independent against his former boss, Mugabe.
The hotel's porters were all of a flutter at the sight of the small man in a yellow baseball hat printed with his own name sitting in their foyer, dwarfed by his security man and looking a lot older than the photograph on his posters. When Makoni goes off alone for a meeting elsewhere, the forces behind the campaign retire to the bar to discuss the next day's schedule over cold beer and hot peanuts.
The most important voice here is that of Dr Ibbotson Mandaza, a former Zanu-PF member, Makoni's No 2, and the chief conspirator in the breakaway plot.
"The bottom line is that there are only two candidates, not three: Simba and Morgan. Mugabe is gone," Mandaza says. "And Simba is flying." He says if Makoni wins the presidential vote Tsvangirai can maybe have the vice-presidency, Mugabe can have a quiet retirement. "Or maybe we'll send him to Surrey, the British and him like each other so much," he laughed heartily.
But Mugabe, who used 28 years of power systematically to ruin Zimbabwe's economy and land, to bring unnecessary suffering to its people and to chase three to four million of its population into exile overseas, is never going to go quietly.
When Zimbabweans enter the police-manned polling stations, it will only be the tiniest of baby steps at the beginning of the journey to a new Zimbabwe. From the fading grandeur of a swanky Harare hotel to the unsettled and hungry people struggling to survive from day to day in Ebworth, people want to see change.
THE CANDIDATES
ROBERT MUGABE
Zanu-PF: Once hailed as a model African democrat, the former Marxist guerrilla has held power since winning Zimbabwe's first election in 1980.
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI
The Movement for Democratic Change: Emerged from a trade union background to become a leading opposition activist. The MDC inflicted a stunning blow on Zanu-PF's iron grip on power in the 2000 elections.
SIMBA MAKONI
Independent: Served in Mugabe's Government for 10 years, most recently as Finance Minister. Supporters say he will reverse economic collapse and end political stalemate.Observer
- OBSERVER
