Military buildup alarms Chinese

Kevin Rudd. Photo / AP

Australia's plan to extend its strategic striking power with a fleet of long-range silent submarines equipped with cruise missiles has raised concerns in China and sparked fears of a new arms race in Asia.

The decision to build the 12 new submarines, announced in the weekend's defence white paper, is a key element in a swing to naval strategic power that will also see three air defence destroyers and a new class of eight heavy frigates equipped with cruise missiles.

They will be joined by 100 cutting-edge Joint Strike Fighters carrying Harpoon antiship missiles, helicopter-carrying amphibious ships, a new strategic sealift ship, naval combat and Army helicopters, advanced armour and artillery for the Army, new maritime patrol aircraft and space, cyber-warfare and intelligence systems.

The white paper says it is conceivable that Australia may have to defend its approaches against major powers, and that it needs the ability to strike back at long range.

"In order to defend ourselves we might ... have to selectively project military power beyond the [immediate region], for instance in maritime Southeast Asia," it says.

"The Government places a priority on broadening our strategic strike options, which will occur through the acquisition of maritime-based land-attack cruise missiles."

Although the white paper marked a step back from the previous conservative Government's lockstep with the United States - insisting on independence of action and self-reliance - it was framed largely on the growth of Chinese might and a shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.

Canberra continues to place the US at the centre of its defence policy and does not believe any other power will have the military, economic or strategic capacity to challenge its primacy over the next 20 years.

But the white paper also notes that Washington's ability to respond to crises in this region may be constrained by operations in other parts of the world.

Canberra's greatest military priority will be the defence of Australia against direct attack - an unlikely scenario - followed by security in the immediate neighbourhood.

But China and the Indian Ocean are assuming a growing role in Australian military thinking.

"More than ever before, short of [previous] war, defence planning will have to contemplate operational concepts for operating in the Indian Ocean region," the paper said.

Canberra is concerned at likely tensions between the major powers, conflicting interests of the US, China, Japan, India and Russia, and rapidly expanding regional forces.

"The truth is we are seeing a period of significant military and naval expansions in the wider Asia-Pacific region and it's important, therefore, that Australia makes provision for that in our own planning horizon," Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said.

The frank language of the white paper's assessments of the risks involved in this - notably China's growing military and economic power - have disturbed Beijing and regional Governments.

It says China by 2030 will be a major global economic and strategic power, potentially by some measures overtaking the US as the world's largest economy by 2020.

Unlike other regional powers it will be able to continue funding its military expansion at the existing pace.

The white paper says China will become Asia's strongest military power by a considerable margin, increasingly able to project that power by warships, submarines and aircraft.

"The pace, scope and structure of China's military modernisation have the potential to give its neighbours cause for concern if not carefully explained," it says.

In Beijing, Chinese strategic Rear-Admiral Yang Yi told Fairfax newspapers that he was concerned and worried by "this stupid, this crazy idea" from Australia.

Yang, who was closely involved in the drafting of China's recent defence white paper, said Canberra's view was dangerous.

"This assessment by Australia carries the risk of stimulating an arms race in the region."

Professor Shi Yinhong, director of American Studies at the People's University in Beijing, said Rudd, a fluent-Mandarin-speaking sinophile, had turned his face against China.

He told Fairfax: "This is close to the most severe 'China threat thesis' ever issued formally by a sovereign Government."