Leftist leader a possibility for Mexico

Sick of politicians who fail to keep promises, Mexicans are sticking pins in voodoo-style dolls of presidential candidates. Picture / Reuters

MEXICO CITY - With Washington focused on immigration reform and border security, the United States is paying relatively little attention to a big event just across that border: the possible election of a left-leaning populist as the next president of Mexico.

If he wins on July 2, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has pledged to turn Mexico away from its 20-year devotion to market economics, to renegotiate parts of the North American Free Trade Agreement and to clamp down on the business elite.

That would be a major change for Mexico, which, despite its quarrels with the US, has stayed the course, lowering its budget deficit, opening up further to foreign investment and fusing its economy ever more closely with the American colossus.

The change could happen. Lopez Obrador, the charismatic former Mayor of Mexico City and leader of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, is tied for first place with former Cabinet minister Felipe Calderon, the candidate of President Vicente Fox's centre-right National Action Party, who wants to deepen market reforms. The third contender, from the once-mighty Institutional Revolutionary Party, has been weakened by defections to both Lopez Obrador and Calderon.

It is ironic that Lopez Obrador's message is resonating with voters even as Mexico enjoys strong growth and low inflation. Many Mexicans believe the free market policies advocated by the US have delivered stability but not nearly enough jobs to benefit the 50 million people (half the population) who live in poverty.

Similar frustration has led to the election of several leftist and nationalist presidents in Latin America over the past four years.

Calderon's campaign ads have labelled Lopez Obrador "a danger to Mexico" and suggested he has links to President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. "His government would exacerbate class confrontation between rich and poor," says Calderon, whose attack-dog ads have helped narrow the contest.

Lopez Obrador says he has never met Chavez and tackles these claims head-on. "They say I'm a danger to Mexico. Do you think so?" he asked a crowd in Matamoros. "No!" they replied. Many applaud his plan to create jobs through infrastructure projects financed by the private sector and to pay US$70 ($110) a month to senior citizens and the disabled. If Lopez Obrador is defeated, both Washington and US businesses are worried about the potential for instability. A decade ago he lost a closely contested state election. He alleged fraud and then led mass demonstrations.

US policymakers are trying to find out if something similar could happen now. "If there is serious disruption over the results, that's going to make Washington nervous as well as the markets," says James Jones, a former ambassador to Mexico who ranks Lopez Obrador "one of the smartest political strategists I've ever met".

What if he wins? Many US executives note that his actual record as Mayor of Mexico City, where he cut government waste to pay for social programmes and new roads, does not mark him as a Chavez in the making. And many acknowledge that Lopez Obrador makes good sense when he vows to end the generous tax breaks and lax regulation that have benefited big business.

While there's a chance he could turn out to be like Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian leftist who turned out to be a moderate President, business remains worried that he will spend more and ruin Mexico's financial health.

A Mexican businessman says: "If he messes things up for six years, it will take another 12 to repair the damage."

- INDEPENDENT