Latham's dream run shakes Howard Government

By GREG ANSLEY herald correspondent

CANBERRA - John Howard's future as Prime Minister has been shaken with news that even before the conclusion of the controversial free-trade agreement with the United States voters were turning away from his Government.

The blow came in an opinion poll as Parliament resumed after the holidays yesterday, and added to the problems Howard faces in selling the new trade pact to a sceptical public.

A Newspoll published in the Australian reported that Labor is now in a position to thrust the Government from office in the elections to be held some time before the end of the year.

Polls taken in the "honeymoon" period after the election of a new party leader - Mark Latham became Opposition Leader in December - often increase the standing of a party.

At the opening stages of an election year they also tend to reflect a protest vote against the incumbent Government that may not be repeated when voters enter polling booths.

But the Newspoll was significant for its finding that early support for Latham's leadership has continued to strengthen, and that for the first time since September 2002, Labor's primary vote equalled the Government's at 41 per cent.

More worrying for the Government was the finding that after the distribution of preferences under Australia's system of preferential voting, Labor gained an election-winning lead of 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

At the last election the Government won by 51 per cent to 49 per cent after preferences were distributed.

Howard did not comment on the poll yesterday, but a spokesman said last night: "He did observe that the new opposition leader has got off to a good start.

"[Howard said] that he's had a wonderful honeymoon. The Prime Minister said clearly there is a tighter contest now."

Howard noted that he had predicted a Labor bounce in the polls when he last addressed the joint party room the day of Latham's election in December last year.

According to the spokesman he told his backbenchers that there were reservations in the electorate about Labor's ability to run the economy.

However, Deputy Liberal Leader and Treasurer Peter Costello told reporters as he entered a Canberra church service to mark the resumption of Parliament: "All elections are close and this morning we're going to prayer."

Latham welcomed the poll result but was cautious in his optimism, noting that an election was probably months away and reflecting on the political skills of Howard, now nudging Labor's Bob Hawke as Australia's second longest-serving Prime Minister.

"[Polls] come and go," he said. "We're still very much the underdog for an election campaign.

"Mr Howard's a tough and experienced competitor, so we'll just be out there being as positive as possible."

Howard's position has been undermined since the poll was taken at the weekend, with the news that the free-trade deal with the US will exclude the ailing sugar industry and will be limited for other major farm commodities.

Although Howard is defending the deal as the best possible agreement and one in Australia's national interest, the farm outcome has opened the Government to attack by Labor and other minor parties and independents.

The agreement is especially damaging for the rural-based Nationals, the junior partner in the ruling Coalition, whose support has been steadily falling for years and whose numbers were reduced further in Parliament by defections.

National's Leader John Anderson conceded yesterday on ABC radio that the exclusion of sugar could cost the Government up to five seats in cane growing areas of Queensland.

"That's a risk we all take," he said.

Howard, who would be defeated by the loss of eight seats nationwide, will attempt to shore up support with an aid package for canegrowers.

However, he will come under concerted attack not only from Labor, but also from independents.

Bob Katter, a National MP turned independent, said yesterday that all Queensland sugar seats were marginal and at risk.

"There's a great battleground developing in the sugar seats."