Latham by a nose-hair in gallop to finish line

By GREG ANSLEY

At mid-course, with three weeks down and three to go, the winner of Australia's electoral race is still anybody's guess.

Punters are putting their money Prime Minister John Howard's way but opinion polls give it to Labor Leader Mark Latham by a nose hair.

Tomorrow Howard officially launches the Government's campaign in Brisbane, to be followed three days later in the same city by Latham and Labor.

But with one in 10 voters unlikely to make up their minds until they enter the polling booths on October 9, and the election likely to be decided on the preferences of minor parties and the mood of key marginal seats, neither leader will be feeling nearly as comfortable as he tries to appear.

As the contenders roar neck and neck into the back straight, the field looks like this:

JOHN HOWARD

Strong, a stayer and capable of a powerful sprint at the post.

Betting agency Centrebet believes from the money flowing the Government's way that Howard will win, and is giving odds on a Coalition victory of A$1.40 - the same, incidentally, as it is offering for the return of President George W. Bush in the United States.

Opinion polls show otherwise. The latest Reuters poll trend, a smoothed average of the three main newspaper polls, has the Government trailing Labor by 3.1 percentage points. The Australian's Newspoll gives Labor a tighter two-point lead, and Morgan gives the Opposition a much stronger six-point advantage.

At this point in the race this is not so unusual. Last election former Labor Leader Kim Beazley was enjoying a similar lead, but in the end - and with the twin blows of September 11 and the Tampa refugee crisis working against him - fell for the second time to Howard.

Howard carries the extra weight of eight years in power and the "it's time" factor, but gains from the never-to-be-underestimated advantage of incumbency. The big issues in this campaign are economic management and national security, both Howard territory.

Whenever he can, Howard twists interviews around to the mantra "interest rates are always higher under Labor" which, with rates already on the rise and house prices easing, sends a palpable tremble throughout the suburbs.

Howard also has a good track record and is presiding over a long-booming economy.

And because he has been around so long, he doesn't have to work so hard on making everyone understand what his policies are about.

Polling consistently shows he is regarded as a better prime minister than Latham would be, more capable of managing the economy and defending the nation, is stronger and more decisive, and has a better grasp of major issues.

MARK LATHAM

Young, strong, fast and beginning to show real pace.

Centrebet still considers him the outsider, giving odds of A$2.70. Again, the same as those offered for Bush's struggling opponent in the US presidential race, John Kerry. But as well as the overall lead shown in newspaper opinion polls, Latham is showing well in marginal seats, especially in South Australia, and leads Howard in the key states of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia.

On the other hand, he has to make up ground in Queensland, where Howard continues to hold an important advantage.

Latham has been making good use of his vigour and freshness, and clearly beat Howard in the sole television debate of the campaign.

But, unlike Howard, he has no record or familiarity to fall back on, and carries the burden of traditional voter fears of Labor governments as poor, even profligate, economic managers - an image that may be unfair but easily recalled by Howard.

Latham has been working hard, and with considerable success, to show that his policies are effective and fully costed, and will not cosset the lazy.

But to do that he has had to explain complex issues in such areas as education and tax to an audience that has a short attention span when it comes to political campaigning.

Latham also carries lead in his saddle from his earlier, scathing, criticism of the US and the war in Iraq, which may have helped cement the support of voters who share his views, but which on a broader stage have raised doubts about his abilities as a statesman and the reception he would have as prime minister in Washington, which remains central to Australia's security and economic ambitions.

While polls show that voters regard Latham as more caring, more trustworthy and likeable and better in touch with them than Howard, their doubts are showing: Reuters poll trend reports that since the election was called Labor's lead has been pruned from 5.2 points to 3.1 points.

BOB BROWN AND THE GREENS

No chance of winning, but a high-stepping, potentially race-deciding galloper.

Centrebet is not taking bets on the Greens or their major rivals, the Democrats, largely because neither stands much chance of winning anything in the Lower House - where the Government is formed - and because an election in the Senate is a horribly complicated affair.

But the Greens, fronted by the charismatic Tasmanian Senator and long-time environmental activist Bob Brown, are looking good. The most recent Newspoll put total support for the Greens at 6 per cent, streets ahead of the Democrats, until now the third force in Australian politics.

A Morgan poll puts support for Senate seats at 12 per cent for the Greens, 6 per cent for the Democrats, 1.5 per cent for One Nation, and 8 per cent for independents.

The complication is that only half the Senate is up for election on October 9, and no one is really sure exactly how the apparent level of support for independents will translate into real votes on the day.

But, judging by the Morgan poll, the Greens appear likely to usurp the Democrats and heavily weight, if not control, the balance of power in the Upper House. Morgan said the Government could lose up to three of its 34 seats in the Senate, Labor could slip one to 27, the Democrats might have just four instead of seven seats, and the Greens could gain four to hold six seats.

The Greens are gaining because the environment is again becoming a major concern - not least because of the parlous state of the Murray River and the impact of the drought - and because many voters want to punish the two major parties.

The Government and Labor have worked hard to bolster their green credentials and have promised lavish funding of environmental programmes. Labor also drafted rock singer and conservationist Peter Garrett into its campaign front line, and has been rewarded by the Greens' promise to direct their second preference votes to Latham.

As well as profiting from the environmental scramble by the major parties, the Greens have also broadened their agenda, attracting voters away from the struggling Democrats, previously the home of the soft left-of-centre.

The Democrats lost support after the party backed Howard's GST and a series of internal schisms and leadership changes.

PAULINE HANSON

Wildcard, unpredictable, but could surprise.

Centrebet is giving odds of A$2.70 for a seat in the Senate for the founder and former leader of the xenophobic One Nation Party. Morgan polling shows she could win one of the 12 Queensland seats in the Upper House, but so far she has not surfaced in other polling.

Hanson has one of the most recognisable faces in Australia, and is widely admired by the disgruntled and disaffected, who see her as the champion of the underdog.

Her party soared on her personal popularity and her simplistic solutions to Australia's problems, but could not bind the wide and frequently conflicting views attracted to it.

At the peak of its popularity, One Nation imploded, leaving only tiny fragments in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia, and a sole Senator from Queensland in Canberra.

Hanson also fell out bitterly with former friends and co-founders, unleashing a round of costly and damaging litigation. She hit her low point when she was jailed for electoral fraud.

But with her release from prison after the quashing of her conviction, a remodelled Hanson hit Australia: martyr, friend of Aboriginals and prisoners, public relations consultant ... a softer, deeper image.

How this translates to the ballot box has yet to be seen. Opinion is divided on her prospects. The available Queensland Senate seats will be fiercely contested, and the major parties are already working hard to lock her out.

And although Hanson has brand recognition and possibly a reasonably solid sympathy vote, she lacks the organisation and feet on the ground to spread her message, rally the troops and do the necessary things like poster sticking and handing out how-to-vote cards.



I say: From the horse's mouth


JOHN HOWARD:

"This election will be about trust. Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect living standards ... to keep interest rates low ... to lead the fight on Australia's behalf against international terrorism.

"It's never a lie to change your mind, if you submit yourself to the Australian people."

MARK LATHAM:

"I have a different approach in saying that the best life is not a life of welfare - it's a life of endeavour and enterprise and lifting yourself up in life.

"We need to ensure that middle Australia has a government that's on their side, a government that understands the real life circumstances of these families."

BOB BROWN:

"[Green values] are important values for this country. It's more than standing in front of the flag. It's also defending what it is that makes Australia special.

"I think the Government is losing it a bit. Not that long ago [Liberal] Senator George Brandis was calling me a Nazi." [after National's leader John Anderson described Greens as communists].

PAULINE HANSON:

"All the people want to know is the truth, and I will tell them.

"I want to be me. I don't want all the hangers-on-ers. I don't want the advisers and everyone else - I want it to be, this time, Pauline Hanson."