Deal deja vu
Tomorrow's vote in on a deal laying out the terms of Britain's orderly departure from the EU that May and EU officials agreed to in December. But British lawmakers voted 432-202 in January to reject it. To get it approved by March 29, the day set for Brexit, May needs to persuade 116 of them to change their minds — a tough task.
Opposition to the deal in Parliament centres on a section that is designed to ensure there are no customs checks or border posts between EU member Ireland and the United Kingdom's Northern Ireland. Pro-Brexit lawmakers dislike that the border "backstop" keeps the UK entwined with EU trade rules. May has been seeking changes to reassure them the situation would be temporary, but the EU refuses to reopen the withdrawal agreement.
Around 100 hard-core Brexit supporters in May's Conservative Party look set to oppose the deal unless the backstop is altered. To offset them, May has courted the opposition Labour Party with promises of money for urban regeneration.
Oliver Patel, a research associate at the European Institute at University College London, says: "It's highly unlikely the deal will be passed. The big question is, what will the margin be?" If, against the odds, lawmakers approve the deal, a short delay to Brexit may be needed so Parliament can translate the agreement's terms into British law.
Destination no-deal
If the deal is rejected, lawmakers expect to vote on Thursday on whether to abandon efforts to secure an agreement and leave the EU as planned on March 29 without a deal.
That idea is backed by a phalanx of pro-Brexit politicians, who say it would cut Britain free of EU rules and red tape, allowing the country to forge an independent global trade policy.
But economists and businesses fear a so-called "no-deal Brexit" would hammer the economy as tariffs and other trade barriers go up between Britain and the EU, its biggest trading partner.
Last month, Parliament passed a non-binding amendment ruling out a "no-deal" Brexit, so lawmakers are unlikely to go with it now.
Delay, delay, delay
If lawmakers reject leaving the EU without an agreement, they have one choice left: Seek more time. A vote scheduled for Friday would decide whether to ask the EU to delay Britain's departure by up to three months.
This is likely to pass, since politicians on both sides of the debate fear time is running out to secure an orderly Brexit by March 29.
An extension requires approval from all 27 remaining EU member countries. They will probably agree. But they are reluctant to grant a delay that stretches past elections for the EU's legislature, the European Parliament, in late May.
Crisis deferred
Whatever Parliament decides, this week will not bring an end to Britain's Brexit crisis. Both lawmakers and the public remain split between backers of a clean break from the EU and those who favour continuing a close relationship — either through a post-Brexit trade deal or by reversing the decision to leave.
May is unwilling to abandon her hard-won Brexit agreement and might try to put it to Parliament a third time, especially if she loses by a small margin tomorrow. But some lawmakers want her to have Parliament consider different forms of Brexit to see if there is a majority for any course of action.
And anti-Brexit campaigners haven't abandoned efforts to secure a new referendum on whether to remain in the EU. The government opposes the idea, which at the moment also lacks majority support in Parliament.
But that could change if the political paralysis drags on. The Labour Party has said it would support a second referendum if other options were exhausted.
It all means more twists are coming in the Brexit drama.
- AP
