Kenyan voters set to bring end to tribal politics

Former Kenyan President Daniel Arap Moi with Pope John Paul II. Photo / Supplied

Kenya is back at the crossroads. That is the warning emanating from the pulpits of its church leaders, fretted over by academics and fought over by its politicians and commentators.

For the first time since the violence that devastated the country in the wake of a flawed election in 2007, leaving more than 1000 people dead, East Africa's biggest economy faces a major democratic test.

Voters must decide this week whether to back a controversial new draft constitution that was a key element in the peace deal that ended the fighting in 2008.

The "Yes" campaign, which includes both sides of the power- sharing coalition that emerged from the wreckage of the last election, considers the draft to be voted on Thursday a long overdue chance to reform the dysfunctional system of the post-independence era, devolving power from the centre and drawing some of the accumulated poison of tribal politics.

But it has faced formidable resistance, led in part by Kenya's church leaders, who are furious at the document's recognition of Islamic customary courts and at a clause they claim opens the door to legalised abortion.

This majority-Christian country's competing denominations have agreed a truce during a campaign that has been more reminiscent of the culture wars of United States politics than the confessional and ethnic mosaic of East Africa.

Flanked by a palette of ecclesiastical robes at Nairobi's Catholic Basilica, Cardinal John Njue railed at the "evil" in the proposed constitution.

"Today our country is at the crossroads," he said from a podium hung with the slogan, "Choose Life, Vote No."

"We seem to have sidelined God's commandments ... We reiterate our advice to all Kenyans to reject this draft."

Much of the energy in the "No" campaign has come from the more overtly political Pentecostal churches. Bishop Mark Kariuki, the rising star of this evangelical movement, has railed against an allowance for doctors to abort if the mother's life is at risk and has highlighted foreign backing for the other side.

"The American Government is funding the Yes campaign," the bishop said. He claims that donor funds given under the guise of "civic education" are being used to lobby for Yes votes.

The US embassy - one of the largest in Africa, reflecting Kenya's strategic importance to Washington - has denied taking sides.

In fact, both sides have outside help. Support for the draft among pro- reform Western embassies who helped to broker the peace in 2008 is well-known and US pro-life groups have been pouring money into the No campaign.

However, the effort to use abortion as an American-style wedge issue on Thursday appears unlikely to work, as it ignores aspects of the constitutional battle that go much deeper. Opinion polls over the weekend pointed to a 60-40 vote in favour of the draft.

For all the culture wars rhetoric, it is tribe and not God that takes precedence, argues John Githongo, a former anti-graft official who was famously forced to flee Kenya after trying to blow the whistle on grand corruption.

He is back, and pushing hard for a Yes vote, arguing that an over-powerful presidency is at the centre of this system.

"Our political system has three pillars: tribalism, corruption and unfair distribution of resources," he said. "Tribalism delivers power to an individual, who then uses corruption to skew distribution of public resources, primarily to his kinsmen."

This approach was created and has been sustained by tribal barons who took Kenya to the brink of civil war two years ago. Githongo believes that the proposed draft can "open new political space" by reducing the power of the presidency and devolving some spending and decision-making to the regions.

First it must overcome the most incendiary issue in Kenya: land. The Great Rift Valley, which has absorbed and fed the country's mushrooming population since independence, has become central to the tribal rivalries that shape its politics.

The area witnessed the worst of the post-election violence and has been flooded with 10,000 security personnel this time around to avoid a repeat.

Earlier in the campaign, six people were killed by a grenade attack on a No campaign rally.

It is no coincidence that former president Daniel arap Moi, one of the country's richest men, has emerged from semi-retirement to lobby hard against a draft constitution that would seek to unravel some of the illegal land deals dating from his tenure.

Tribal support in the Rift from the Kalenjin grouping put Moi in office, but this time the balance of tribal politics, which Moi did so much to build, is against him. The unexpected support of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga means that Kenya's two largest tribal blocs, the Kikuyu and Luo, are in the Yes camp.

Political analyst Murithi Mutiga says that conflict in Kenya arises primarily when the Kikuyu and Luo are at odds. Only a series of unconnected events persuaded the political rivals to compromise, he argued, and that had forced most of the political class to fall in line. "The trauma of the violence last time is what is driving the process forward," Mutiga said.

THE PATH TO REFORM

Why does Kenya need a new constitution?

Kenya has been in search of a new constitution since the declining years of the regime headed by Daniel arap Moi as President. Successive leaders have campaigned with promises of changing the current settlement, only to fail to deliver. The constitution, it is widely agreed, has created an "imperial" presidency, with sweeping central powers. This has become the sole electoral prize in Kenya, and the patronage system that supports it has cemented the primacy of tribe in politics. Decades of resentment at this setup spilled over into violence after a contested election result two years ago.

What are the main points of the proposed settlement?

The draft would create a United States-style system, with a second chamber and a President surrounded by greater checks and balances. It would allow for the recalling of non-performing MPs and for a Cabinet of technocrats. It would also scrap the temporary role of Prime Minister that emerged from talks in 2008, and set up a commission to address the issue of illegally acquired land.

Who is supporting it?

Unusually, the leaders of the two largest ethnic groups, the Kikuyu and the Luo, are campaigning for a "Yes" vote. There is a strong sentiment among the business elite and academic class that it represents the best compromise. Most of civil society is also in support, and there has been a discreet push in favour of it from most donors in Europe and the US.

Who is leading the 'No' campaign?

The main opposition comes from those who stand to lose land and influence, such as the Kalenjin political leaders of the Rift Valley, former President Moi and Cabinet minister William Ruto. They have been joined by Christian church leaders outraged at a clause that opens the door - in limited circumstances - to legal abortion; this campaign has drawn financial support from the pro-life lobby in the US.Independent

- INDEPENDENT