Kelly believed WMD would take weeks to deploy

By KIM SENGUPTA and MARY DEJEVSKY

Weapons expert David Kelly believed that Saddam Hussein was less of a threat before the last Gulf War than 10 years ago, and could only use his supposed weapons of mass destruction in "days or weeks", rather than 45 minutes, as the Government has claimed.

Dr Kelly's views were revealed for the first time yesterday in a hitherto unshown television interview with BBC's Panorama programme, which took place just a month after Tony Blair made the 45-minute assertion in his Iraq weapons dossier last September.

Meanwhile, it also emerged that the International Institute of Strategic Studies has commissioned an independent authority to review its assessment of Iraq's military capability before the US and British went to war.

The IISS report on Iraq, published less than two weeks before the Government's contentious dossier of 24 September, 2002, had forecast that Saddam Hussein would be prepared to use chemical weapons against an invader, and canvassed the likelihood that Iraq had large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

While some of the think-tank's assessments had proved correct, other assessments had proved wrong like the view that Iraq would probably deploy chemical artillery in the event of an attack.

Dr Kelly, who killed himself after being revealed as the source for journalist Andrew Gilligan's report that the Government had "sexed up" the dossier, believed that Iraq was a real threat.

But he also maintained that British intelligence had major gaps in knowledge about the country's WMDs, and Saddam would only use them if he was attacked as a last resort.

Dr Kelly also stated that Iraq's neighbours, such as Iran and Israel, were a threat. The September dossier implied that British bases in Cyprus were within the range of Iraqi chemical and biological warfare.

However, a new episode of Panorama, broadcast last night, accused Mr Gilligan of inaccuracies in his report about Dr Kelly, and criticised the BBC management for standing by the journalist without carrying out an internal investigation.

The programme maintained that Mr Gilligan did not have enough evidence to back up his charge that the Government had deliberately inserted the false 45-minute threat. Instead, it concluded that John Scarlett, the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, tasked with drawing up the dossier, had acquiesced too readily to pressure from Downing Street.

Mr Gilligan, the defence and diplomatic correspondent of Radio 4's Today programme, has already admitted to the Hutton Inquiry that he has made mistakes in his original report.

Mr Ware attacked senior managers for failing to check Mr Gilligan's notes which were the basis for accusing Alastair Campbell, then the Prime Minister's communication chief, and Downing Street of doctoring the dossier.

He concluded: "The Director General and his senior executives bet the farm on a shaky foundation."

Although Downing Street is bound to welcome being cleared by one part of the BBC over the sexing up allegation, the statements from Dr Kelly, one of the country's foremost WMD experts before his death, pose fresh questions about the justification given for going to war.

The BBC said it had passed on tapes of the interview to the Hutton Inquiry, but no reference was made to it during the proceedings. Filmed on 29th October 2002, it was never broadcast.

Questioned by a Panorama producer, Dr Kelly said:" Iraq's intrinsic capability has been reduced since 1990-91." Speaking about Saddam's supposed WDM arsenal, he continued: "Even if they are not actually filled and deployed today, the capability exists to get them filled and deployed within a matter of days or weeks."

Asked how Iraq might launch a chemical or biological attack, Dr Kelly said: "The actual form, we don't really know. He'd have been planning to develop them and have far better and far more effective systems and those we are completely unsighted of, and we are also unsighted as to whether that work has continued since 1991 to this very day."

The scientist also suggested that Saddam might have only used these weapons in self-defence.

"I think he'd use them. Of course, what is more difficult to answer is how and under what circumstances he would use them," he said.

"I think some people would consider that when the chips are down, and he is fighting his last battle, that is when he may be prepared to use them. I think he would be reluctant to use them in the build-up to the war - in the transition to war - because he knows what the response would be. It would be utterly devastating for him."

Shadow Foreign Secretary Michael Ancram said last night: "It is a great shame that Dr Kelly's remarks were not presented publicly as evidence to the Hutton Inquiry.

His comments do place his views at odds with those presented in the Government's September dossier.

This interview reinforces the case for the full independent judicial enquiry into the run-up to the Iraq war which we have been calling for.

"Mr Ancram referred to evidence given to the Hutton Inquiry that intelligence assessments that Saddam would only use his WMD if he was attacked was changed at the request of Jonathan Powell, Mr Blair's Chief of Staff, by the JIC to claim that he may use them in an aggressive fashion without facing an attack.

"This shows Dr Kelly's concern with the 45-minute claim and with the passage amended by Jonathan Powell," said Mr Ancram.

- INDEPENDENT

Herald Feature: Iraq