Kavanaugh fallout: Division to be felt at polls

Donald Trump celebrated Brett Kavanaugh s appointment at a rally in Topeka, Kansas, yesterday.Photo / AP

Kavanaugh fallout set to influence midterm elections.

The nomination fight over Judge Brett Kavanaugh has injected new volatility into the midterm elections, reshaping races across the United States and sharpening the already bitterly partisan tone for the final four-week stretch before voters go to the polls on November 7.

Much uncertainty remains - not least because of the rapid-fire succession of evolving crises that have marked President Donald Trump's term in office - but for now the weeks-long Kavanaugh saga appears to be pushing House races toward Democrats, even as it has given Republicans better odds of maintaining control of the Senate.

That division stems from the make-up of the races and the political geography of the most competitive battles. House contests this year already were expected to be determined by suburban women, who had pulled away from the President over his term in the White House and appear to be the most sympathetic to Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who testified that Kavanaugh had assaulted her when both were teenagers.

But most of this year's competitive Senate races are in traditionally red states, and as Republicans have rallied to Kavanaugh's side, the chances of Democratic upsets there have dropped, at least for now.

"There's nothing quite like a good old-fashioned Supreme Court fight to polarise the electorate - and that's what we've observed in the past few weeks," said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "The Kavanaugh issue has almost acted as a centrifuge to separate red and blue elements of the electorate even more."

The Supreme Court battle has washed over the campaign in a way that no single issue has before, drowning out topics Democrats want to talk about (healthcare) or the ones Republicans are pushing (tax cuts and a rosy economy). In a season defined by enough-is-enough female energy - along with white male rage and aggrievement that is stomping back to 2016 levels - the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings were explosive on all fronts.

In recent days, Trump has fiercely defended Kavanaugh and mocked his accusers, candidates have aired new ads on their positions, debates have pivoted on the nomination, and both parties have sensed political advantage in what already had stacked up as an election dependent on each side motivating its base.

The divide into separate camps has been on vivid display among protesters inside the US Capitol - but it is also playing out more subtly in the rest of the country.

Democrats have always faced a difficult Senate map - six of the competitive seats that they hold are in states Trump won, and five of those states he carried by at least 19 points - but their path now is more treacherous.

For Republicans, a major challenge will be keeping their base riled up over how Kavanaugh was treated, even though he was poised to win in the end. Democrats believe that the enthusiasm advantage will shift back their way.

"On our side, the outrage will live for years," said Brian Fallon, a Democratic consultant. "And it'll be very pronounced, particularly among women voters who are already the backbone of the resistance."

Corry Bliss, who runs the Congressional Leadership Fund to preserve the House GOP majority, said: "In the last week things have undeniably improved in our polling.

"Republican intensity and excitement are through the roof.

"Now we need to keep the trend going for the next few weeks."