A man walks by an election campaign billboard showing Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud Party leader, in Tel Aviv. Photos / AP
Israel's election campaign has been a three-month roller coaster of mudslinging, scandals and more scandals.
But when voters head to the polls tomorrow, one name will be predominantly on their minds: Benjamin Netanyahu.
At its core, the vote boils down to a referendum on Netanyahu, the man who has dominated Israeli politics for the better part of three decades.
A victory will propel him into the record books later this year as the longest-serving Israeli prime minister, surpassing founding father David Ben-Gurion.
A loss would likely end his career just as he is enjoying the limelight at the vanguard of a rising global movement of tough-talking, nationalist world leaders led by his friend, US President Donald Trump.
"Israel's standing internationally has never been as solid as it is right now. International leaders are lining up to visit Israel and meet with the Prime Minister," said Yechiel Leiter, a former Netanyahu chief of staff who is now a senior fellow at the Kohelet Policy Forum, a conservative Jerusalem think-tank. "Everyone knows Bibi wherever you go."
Netanyahu's impassioned supporters revere him as larger-than-life "King Bibi," friend of powerful world leaders and guarantor of Israel's security in a tough region.
His opponents revile him as a corrupt hedonist who has divided the country by inciting against Arabs and whose policies towards the Palestinians are leading Israel off a cliff.
In the final days of the campaign, the race appears too close to call as Netanyahu faces a strong challenge from Benny Gantz, a popular former army chief.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud Party and Gantz's new Blue and White Party neck and neck.
The surveys give Likud a slight advantage in being able to put together a governing coalition with smaller, like-minded parties.
The son of a Jewish historian and scarred by the loss of his brother in a 1976 Israeli commando raid on a hijacked airline at Uganda's Entebbe airport, Netanyahu, 69, often portrays himself — and the country — in historical terms.
He laces his speeches with references to Jewish history, tales of Jewish heroism and warnings that Israel's most sinister enemies lurk around every corner. The main target of his diatribes, Iran, is often compared to biblical enemies and even the Nazis.
Though he is an MIT-educated millionaire who speaks flawless American-accented English, Netanyahu has managed to portray himself as an outsider and underdog.
He claims to be persecuted by journalists, judges and other hostile "elites" in a message that endears him to his religious, working class political base.
"He's unprecedentedly gifted. He's a competent political manoeuverer and the most effective political communicator in Israel's history," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan think-tank. "And his personal motivation to continue to hold onto power is infinite."
Netanyahu's campaign has focused heavily on smearing opponents as weak "leftists," routinely claiming they are conspiring with the country's Arab parties against him.
Opponents accuse him of incitement and demonising Israel's Arab minority, which makes up roughly 20 per cent of the population.
"Netanyahu incites against us more than anyone, and each time he breaks his own record," wrote Ayman Odeh, a prominent Arab MP, on Twitter.
It's a formula that has worked before — and this time, he has an added Trump card.
Since taking office, Trump has given Netanyahu gift after gift, recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and cutting hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the Palestinians.
All but endorsing Netanyahu, Trump hosted him at the White House late last month and recognised Israel's annexation of the occupied Golan Heights.
Yesterday, Netanyahu announced in a television interview that if re-elected, he would move to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank, a step that would likely erase the last hopes of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Anshel Pfeffer, author of Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu, said the Israeli leader has managed to leverage every major geopolitical event in recent years to his advantage.
Israel's economy is flourishing, it is expanding diplomatic ties around the world, and there has been no punishment for ignoring the ticking time bomb of the Palestinian issue.
when writing a piece about potential Palestinian reactions to Israeli annexation of the W Bank, it's worth interviewing a Palestinian https://t.co/F3nDQJiGV2
— Peter Beinart (@PeterBeinart) April 7, 2019
While turning the Palestinians into a "sideshow," Netanyahu has even managed to cultivate behind-the-scenes ties with Gulf Arab countries. "It's not that Israelis are drifting to the right. It's that Netanyahu has won the argument," Pfeffer said.
Netanyahu's campaign videos show him hobnobbing with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of China, India, Africa and Latin America. Massive political billboards show him standing alongside Trump.
Following up his White House visit, Netanyahu travelled last week to Moscow to meet Putin, where the Russian leader acknowledged helping return the remains of an Israeli soldier who went missing in action in Lebanon 37 years ago.
It was another election-related gift to Netanyahu, reinforcing his business-as-usual message that the country is secure and in good hands.
But this campaign is anything but usual.
Gantz, with two other former military chiefs on his ticket, is a rare candidate who has the credentials to challenge Netanyahu on security, always a central issue to voters.
If Netanyahu acts on his annexation statement, Israel will no longer be able to separate from Palestinians. One state for two peoples will result. Expect Palestinians to start saying ok, let’s have one person one vote. Will that not resonate everywhere, including the US?
— Dennis Ross (@AmbDennisRoss) April 7, 2019
He has derided Netanyahu's failure to halt rocket fire from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
Yet Gantz's main focus has been on Netanyahu himself, taking aim at the raft of corruption allegations against the Prime Minister.
Israel's attorney-general has recommended indicting Netanyahu on bribery and breach of trust charges.
Rivals have also begun to question a deal in which Netanyahu reportedly earned US$4 million on a German submarine sale to Egypt by owning shares in one of the German manufacturer's suppliers.
"Enough already Bibi," say Gantz's campaign videos.
The election campaign has been especially nasty.
Netanyahu has branded his opponent a weak "leftist" and tried to seize on the discovery that Gantz's mobile phone was infiltrated by Iranian hackers. Likud attack ads paint Gantz as stuttering and mentally unstable.
Gantz, 59, accuses Netanyahu of leading the country to "low and bad places". Israeli researchers' recent discovery of a network of social media bots that promoted Likud messages and smeared Gantz has deepened the animosity.
Netanyahu's confident rhetorical style has served him well during a three-decade career that has included time at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, a stint as ambassador to the United Nations and an earlier term as prime minister in the 1990s. The scandals seem to have had no effect on his supporters.
Israel's election: Five things to know https://t.co/gVhOqQ3836
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) April 7, 2019
But if the attorney general files formal charges after the election, the walls may finally close in on a newly re-elected Netanyahu.
Pfeffer predicted a "major showdown" with the legal branch and said Netanyahu will search for a way to dismiss the charges or pass a law granting him immunity.
"We're facing a constitutional crisis in the next few months in Israel," he said.
Alarmed by the prospect his right-wing bloc could fail to form the next coalition after two former allies joined forces against him, Netanyahu forged an alliance with an extremist faction inspired by the banned Kahanist movement, branded a Jewish terrorist organisation by the US for an extremist agenda that includes the forced expulsion of Palestinians.
Although Netanyahu's controversial political alliance and the corruption allegations have rattled many Israeli voters — and drawn condemnation from American Jews — it hasn't quite dented his personality cult. He remains admired by his right-wing, populist base.
With Hamas targeting the country’s center more frequently, Israel needs a radical shift in its missile defense strategy - @jeremybob1https://t.co/SkrnjrHJ3J
— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) April 7, 2019
THE CONTENDER: BENNY GANTZ
Retired army chief Gantz burst onto the political scene just a few months ago, offering himself as an honest alternative to the scandal-plagued Netanyahu and his narrow coalition of ultranationalist and ultra-religious parties.
He joined forces with popular politician Yair Lapid, head of Yesh Atid party, and forged a new centrist party, Blue and White, made up of other former military officers.
The celebrated ex-general may be the only one who can compete with Netanyahu's own security credentials and gain the trust of a society that feels psychologically and geographically under siege.
Gantz has campaigned on his clean record and military pedigree, proclaiming that Israel has "lost its way," pledging to combat corruption and professing his devotion to state institutions that Netanyahu has assailed.
He has kept his platform vague, however, apparently aiming to reach broad swaths of political moderates.
He talks about income inequality, rising home prices and the need for better infrastructure. He criticises Netanyahu for stoking ethnic and religious tensions, and promises to amend the controversial nation-state law that marginalised minorities by declaring Israel the state of the Jewish people alone.
While trafficking in rhetoric of unity and egalitarianism, Gantz is careful not to come off as too dovish.
He isn't specific about plans for engaging with the Palestinian leadership, wary of alienating political hardliners.
One tough-guy campaign ad bragged about the number of Palestinian militants killed under Gantz's command in the devastating 2014 Gaza war.
Gantz may be able to exploit Netanyahu's vulnerabilities, but it remains to be seen whether that's enough to oust the only leader Israel has known for the past 10 years.
- AP
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