Israel doubtful a peace deal would stop Iran

JERUSALEM - The Israeli Defence Minister yesterday issued one of the Government's bluntest warnings against linkage between its stance on a two-state solution with the Palestinians and efforts to stop Iran becoming a nuclear power.

In what also appeared to be a defence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for not committing himself to a Palestinian state, Ehud Barak declared: "These... words will not cause Iran to stop its centrifuges."

The Labour leader added: "Israel has already said in the past 'two states for two peoples' and this didn't cause the Palestinians to fall into our arms and reach all the tough decisions that are required."

Netanyahu said after talks with President Barack Obama at the White House on Tuesday that he was willing to open immediate talks with the moderate Palestinian leadership. But he failed - unlike Obama - to say that the goal would be a Palestinian state.

Israeli officials insisted that while Netanyahu's choice of words did not endorse a Palestinian state, they did not condemn it either.

The Israeli Government remains sceptical about the emerging view in Washington that progress between Israel and the Palestinians would help to create an international - including Arab - alliance to thwart Iran's perceived nuclear ambitions.

Amid a series of differences between the United States and Israel's Government over Jewish settlements, Iran, and a two-state solution, one possible area of common ground began to emerge. This is the idea of "phased normalisation" by the Arab states in return for movement by Israel towards Palestinian demands.

Thinking in Washington continues to evolve on a possible comprehensive regional solution in the Middle East .

While stressing the need for Israel to seize the opportunity for a lasting solution with the Palestinians, Obama said: "The other Arab states have to be more supportive and be bolder in seeking potential normalisation with Israel."

The principle involved in "phased normalisation" is that Arab states would grant gradual moves towards recognition of Israel in return for it making progress with the Palestinians. Diplomats put forward a hypothetical example of removal of settlement outposts or real settlement freeze in the West Bank being "rewarded" by Gulf States allowing El Al to use their airspace.

Most Arab states have long opposed the phasing idea on the grounds that such "concessions" by Israel are in any case required by international law and, in the case of outposts, Israeli law.

THE OBSTACLES

Settlements: Israel is under renewed pressure to end settlements in East Jerusalem and stop expanding existing ones in the West Bank.

Palestinian state: Benjamin Netanyahu is resisting US pressure to declare he wants it but says he is ready for immediate economic, security, and political talks with the Palestinians, and will remove roadblocks to encourage "economic peace".

Hamas' role: The split between the Palestinians is a major stumbling block. Hillary Clinton seems willing to ease the path to a unity government. But it's not clear if either Hamas or Fatah are seriously interested in putting an end to their differences.

Syria: Netanyahu has said he will never give up the Golan Heights and he doubts Syrian President Bashar al Assad's good faith in seeking talks. But a Syria-Israel-US agreement could be part of a regional deal that Barack Obama is thinking about.

Iran: Israel is still sceptical that US efforts at dialogue with Tehran will bear fruit and has not ruled out a military strike. Obama says any talks with Iran will not be open-ended and that no options are off the table, but stresses economic sanctions.

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