“Who knows,” he mused, “maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!”
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that Pakistan might hold 9.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil - a figure cited frequently by Pakistani officials to court foreign investors.
These reserves have not been proved, cautioned Afia Malik, an energy researcher in Pakistan. The country’s proven reserves are far smaller - they place it around 50th globally, behind such countries as Romania, Vietnam, and Brunei.
Pakistan produced fewer than 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2023, according to the EIA, far less than the world’s top producers. The US, with around 13 million barrels per day, ranked first.
After a long history of setbacks and failures, few in Pakistan believe it will ever become an oil exporter.
“Red tape, political interference, and bureaucratic inefficiencies” have deterred foreign investors and limited progress, Malik said.
Trump suggested that new investment would come from private US sources. “We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership,” he wrote.
The most ambitious attempt ended in 2019, when a consortium that included ExxonMobil searched off Karachi but found no oil or gas deposits.
A Pakistani refiner said last week that it had struck an agreement for its first import of US crude oil.
“As the President said, Pakistan and the US will work together on developing their massive oil reserves, which will strengthen economic security for both of our countries,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.
Pakistani officials have welcomed Trump’s announcement to resume the search for oil.
“If there’s investment coming in from countries like the US, China, others, we would like to welcome that,” Power Minister Awais Leghari told the Washington Post. “It is good to see that on the radar of President Trump.”
Among commentators in Pakistan, disbelief and, in some cases, mockery have prevailed.
Some suspect Trump is sending a message to neighbouring India, Pakistan’s more populous and more economically influential arch-rival.
“Pakistan may simply be a leverage point, rather than the main beneficiary of this engagement,” political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said.
Relations between the Trump Administration and the Indian Government have faltered in recent months over trade. Trump said last week that he will double the tariff on goods from India to 50% because of the country’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
While some here doubt that Pakistan is a priority to Trump, officials say they have noticed an improvement in relations with Washington.
When days of border fighting between India and Pakistan in May threatened to escalate to all-out war, the Administration brokered a ceasefire.
Trump hosted powerful army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House, and Islamabad said it would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The renewed American interest in Pakistan, some analysts suspect, might be less about oil than access to minerals and rare earths.
Pakistan is believed to hold large and unexplored deposits of the rare earths that are crucial for consumer electronics and defence technology.
Amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, a key rare earth supplier, the Trump Administration has shown growing interest in Pakistan’s mines. US officials attended the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in April.
But as with oil, most of Pakistan’s mineral deposits are unexplored and could be difficult to exploit.
China is building a nearly 3220km road, rail, and pipeline network to link the Chinese border in northern Pakistan, resource-rich western Pakistani provinces and a deep-sea port in the south, but the work has been hampered by growing insecurity.
Islamabad is concerned about the rising militancy of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Separatist groups in the southwestern province of Baluchistan, meanwhile, are escalating their fight against the Government.
Baluch separatists claimed responsibility last week for an attack on two mining trucks in the province.
The militants warned that anyone “involved in the looting of Baloch national resources” or transporting minerals would be considered a legitimate target.
Some former Pakistani officials worry that the rising security challenges are fuelled by a sense of disenfranchisement shared not only by radicalised militants but also ordinary people.
When oil or minerals were extracted in the past, locals rarely reaped the rewards.
“Serious efforts were never made to engage them as mutual partners,” said G.A. Sabri, a former top official in the Petroleum Ministry.
Sabri hopes Pakistani officials have learned their lesson. But as the Government seeks foreign investment, it has introduced legislation to expand its control over mineral extraction, giving more cause for local grievances.
“When local communities see tangible benefits from exploration,” said Malik, “they are more likely to take ownership of its security and success.”
