1 He is being eased out slowly
Right from the start of the military's takeover, the army leadership was careful not to stir up political sympathy inside Zimbabwe and in the region for the 93-year-old who has led Zimbabwe since independence. It was not a 'coup'. Mugabe and his family were 'fine' under house arrest. The targets were his 'criminal' allies. South African envoys visited him. As the Daily Telegraph wrote: "The military's intervention could swiftly lose support, and prompt condemnation from South Africa and the African Union, were the President's departure managed in an undignified way".
Other important players have since had the chance to show they want the despot gone. Hundreds of thousands of people protested and celebrated his apparent exit at the weekend. The ruling party has turned against Mugabe. The message: Opposition is much wider than the military. Could it be that he resigns at the conference from December 12-17 in a semi-dignified manner? The party committee has made sacked vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa its nominee to take over from Mugabe.
2 He has managed to delay and survive (for now)
This could be essentially about military intimidation, about purging first lady Grace Mugabe's faction and the military ensuring that she does not succeed her husband as head of state instead of Mnangagwa.
The military could be allowing Mugabe to stay and propping him up, while under warning.
The generals responsible for the coup were seated next to him as he gave his speech and must have approved it. In it, Mugabe acknowledged some problems with the economy and his party.
He is probably using what leverage he has to stay on, hoping to delay and draw out more support for himself the longer it goes on, to battle through the crisis. He would want to protect himself and the position of his family for the future, or to negotiate an advantageous exit package.
Under this scenario, the military is focused on a key goal - maintaining its influence in the government. And the party has settled on a long-time Mugabe insider as next in line. The forces behind the ruler remain in place.
- Nicola Lamb is Foreign Editor of the NZ Herald
