Indonesia's Yudhoyono faces second round run-off

1.00pm - By DEAN YATES

JAKARTA - Retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono failed to win a majority in the first round of Indonesia's presidential elections and faces a tough campaign ahead of a September 20 run-off.

Yudhoyono himself has warned of violence because so much is at stake for the parties and candidates in the world's most populous Muslim nation.

According to early results, Yudhoyono garnered the highest number of votes in Monday's first round but the percentage was not as high as many had expected.

Indonesia's first direct presidential poll was a landmark for a country and its 220 million people, more used to despots than democrats but where many yearn for stronger leadership to create jobs, eradicate graft and improve security.

The country's stock and currency markets, unnerved by political uncertainty leading up to the election, are likely to trade higher on Tuesday on the smooth and peaceful ballot, although the threat of violence remains.

"In the second round the situation will be head-to-head competition, which of course is rougher," Yudhoyono, a former chief security minister, told reporters on Monday.

"Supporters can be prone to provocation and agitation, so the key is everyone, the candidates, campaign teams and supporters, should all restrain themselves."

The cool-headed Yudhoyono, 54, was projected to win 34 per cent of Monday's vote, a representative sample of ballots by the US-based National Democratic Institute and a local research organisation showed.

It gave President Megawati Sukarnoputri 25 per cent, while former armed forces chief Wiranto took 24 per cent.

That margin was too small to say who Yudhoyono would face in the run-off, said the groups late on Monday. Their projections have been highly accurate in the past.

By 10.30am (NZT) yesterday, Indonesia's election commission said Yudhoyono had 33.1 per cent of the vote, Megawati 26.7 per cent and Wiranto 23.4 per cent. The counted ballots represented 8.5 per cent of 153 million eligible voters.

Unofficial reports put turn-out at more than 80 per cent.

The margin of Yudhoyono's first round win was a surprise.

Opinion polls had given him 40-45 of the vote, 30 percentage points ahead of his rivals. Voters liked his scandal-free image and pledge of firmer leadership.

However, Megawati and Wiranto have formidable political machines behind them, unlike Yudhoyono's fledgling party that struggles for funds and influence.

Political analysts said Monday's vote was a big step forward for Indonesian democracy after six years of bloodshed and economic crisis since former strongman Suharto quit amid student-led protests in 1998.

Previously, a national assembly chose leaders.

"Every day it becomes more difficult to go back to Suharto. People cannot get away with random abuse of human rights any more," said political commentator Wimar Witoelar.

Final election results will be announced by the end of July.

On major issues, little divides Yudhoyono and his two expected contenders. All want to raise incomes in Indonesia, where half the population live on less than US$2 a day.

None has called for an Islamic state and all have promised to fight terror in a country where Islamic militants linked to al Qaeda have carried out a spate of bombings.

However, some doubt the respected Yudhoyono would make a huge difference to Indonesia's problems should he win.

"We should be realistic from the beginning, you cannot expect one person to rescue this country unless (he's) super human," Witoelar said.

- REUTERS