KEY POINTS:
The recent anti-Chinese protests in Tibet and several surrounding provinces in China have been watched with concern by governments in nearby South and Southeast Asia, especially India. However, unlike faraway Europe and the United States, their priority with Tibet is stability, not human rights.
The New Zealand Government
is trying to keep the two interests more in balance, but without upsetting Beijing. China's rapid rise as an economic giant has been a big boost to New Zealand, looking to sign a free trade deal with China soon.
China's rise is also having mainly beneficial effects in South and Southeast Asia.
Their trade, investment and tourism with China has mushroomed, promoting growth in the region when Western demand is slowing as the US economy slumps and the credit crisis saps confidence.
However, sustained growth enables China to modernise its armed forces as well as its economy. Earlier this month, Beijing announced plans to raise military spending by nearly 18 per cent this year, to US$59 billion ($74.45 billion), marking the 20th consecutive year that China's defence budget has increased by double digits.
India, in particular, does not want to see Beijing given an internal security pretext to move more Chinese forces into Tibet, which was occupied by China in 1960. China used its Tibetan territory to fight a border war with India in 1962 and Beijing still claims 90,000sq km of land in the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, saying it is part of Tibet.
In response, India is building new roads to the border and adding to its military presence in the state. India also says China is occupying 38,000sq km of its territory in Kashmir illegally ceded by Pakistan.
Since the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, fled to India with his followers in 1959, New Delhi has had to juggle China relations with the decision to allow the Tibetan god-king and his government-in-exile to base themselves at Dharamsala in northwest India, not far from Tibet.
But in the recent unrest, New Delhi has been careful not to rile China. It protected the Chinese embassy and prevented other Tibetan protesters from marching into Tibet.
China's premier Wen Jiabao has said that he appreciated the steps taken by India to limit the activities of the Dalai clique, which Beijing claims is seeking Tibet's independence.
From China's perspective, national unity is challenged by separatists in Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, another nominally autonomous region north of Tibet. In Tibet and Xinjiang, indigenous groups chafe under repressive Chinese rule and resent the large-scale settlement of Han Chinese.
Both regions are strategically vital for China. Xinjiang is a treasure trove of oil, gas and minerals. It is also China's gateway to its ally Pakistan and to energy-rich Central Asia. Chinese government geologists reported last year that they had found huge resources of copper, lead, zinc and iron ore in Tibet - minerals that China must now import on a large scale from Australia and other foreign suppliers.
In addition, Tibet is the source and store of much of China's fresh water. This makes China the dominant headwater power in Eurasia, giving it control over the upper reaches of some of the great rivers that flow into South and Southeast Asia, sustaining people, agriculture and industry there.
The Brahmaputra, Mekong and Salween rivers all start in the glaciers and snow-fed highlands on the roof of the world, the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.
China, short of both electricity and water, is in the midst of a massive dam-building programme. Hydropower generators on rivers in China provide about 100 million kilowatts of electricity, about 23 per cent of total capacity. The Government has said it plans to triple hydropower supply by 2020.
The project includes a series of huge dams on Chinese sections of the Mekong and Salween rivers that downstream countries in Southeast Asia fear will affect the amount and quality of water they receive.
This is an aspect of growing Chinese influence that is frequently overlooked and therefore underestimated.
It would have been an underlying concern for downstream states when leaders of the six Mekong countries - China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam - met in Vientiane in a meeting due to end yesterday to review progress in improving river basin management and integrating their economies.
But given China's growing clout, they are unlikely to make much of a fuss.
* Michael Richardson, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a security specialist at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
