KEY POINTS:
If Commodore Frank Bainimarama stopped posturing and started listening, he might learn something to his advantage.
While Fiji's military ruler makes empty threats about banning New Zealand exports and not-so-empty threats about looking to Asia for help to bolster his so-called "interim" government, New Zealand's stance towards Fiji
has necessarily shifted.
Nearly two months after the coup, New Zealand must operate in the reality of Commodore Bainimarama's regime having become increasingly entrenched while domestic opposition has melted away.
Before Christmas, New Zealand was calling for the commodore to return to the barracks and the previous legitimately elected administration of Laisenia Qarase to be reinstated.
Helen Clark has since softened that position slightly by saying she is now waiting to hear from the commodore on what he is planning by way of a "clear and credible timetable" for a return to constitutional democracy. There is no mention of Mr Qarase.
It is a pretty big hint to the commodore, who appointed himself prime minister in the interim, that if he proves he is serious about restoring proper democratic government in a relatively short timeframe - say, holding proper elections within 12 months - then some of the negative repercussions for Fiji, such as a pending European Union suspension of aid, may be averted.
That does not mean the sanctions imposed by New Zealand would be lifted quickly. That was another message Helen Clark had for Commodore Bainimarama yesterday. Those sanctions are anyway limited in impact. More importantly, Helen Clark is effectively offering the commodore an exit strategy out of the crisis in Fiji's international relations.
But will he listen? To work, Helen Clark's strategy requires plenty of stick as well as some carrot.
Her leverage is weakened by her and Australia's reluctance to take a really hard line against Fiji, such as by imposing financial and economic sanctions or banning Fiji from the international rugby sevens.
The ability of the transtasman partners to influence events suffered a further blow yesterday with reports that the United Nations was hiring more Fiji soldiers to act as bodyguards in Iraq.
Shutting Fiji out of lucrative UN work was seen as the most effective sanction of all as it would hit the Fiji military in their pockets - and New Zealand was supposedly lobbying for this to happen.
Meanwhile, Commodore Bainimarama has further sought to frustrate New Zealand and Australian efforts to isolate him by sending a delegation of ministers, senior officials and selected business people to China, India, Malaysia and Indonesia.
This stratagem is designed to make New Zealand and Australia drop sanctions and recognise his government rather than suffer a loss of influence as Fiji plays them off against larger powers.
That was Helen Clark's other message to the commodore: knock on the doors of Asian capitals and you will find those governments well informed of New Zealand's view of events in Fiji and unwilling to offend a significant player in the region.
No doubt these messages will be reinforced by New Zealand's High Commissioner in Suva during forthcoming consultations with Fiji's Foreign Affairs ministry - a Bainimarama initiative.
This is one small positive matter among his talk of export bans and threats to New Zealand expatriates.
Helen Clark's call for a timetable back to democracy offers a mechanism for the two countries' diplomats to engage in some meaningful dialogue, even if the war of words between Suva and Wellington continues overhead.
