Greg Ansley: Howard all at sea over asylum seeker bill

Prime Minister John Howard's iron grip on his Government appears likely to slip on the issue of asylum seekers, delivering the heaviest blow landed on the authority he has wielded for the past decade.

This week, and possibly as early as today, the Senate will vote on his proposal to send all asylum seekers to Nauru, out of reach of the rights that would normally be legally available to them in Australia.

With one key Senator pledging to vote against the bill, and two from the Government planning to oppose the move or abstain from voting, Howard's move to appease Indonesia and amass even tighter control over Australia's borders appears doomed.

While not terminal by any means to the Prime Minister or his Government, defeat would be a major embarrassment and add to a run of bad news that continued yesterday with a new ACNeilsen poll in the Sydney Morning Herald that put Labor in an election-winning lead.

Defeat would also not help Canberra's delicate relations with Jakarta, battered by the temporary sanctuary granted to West Papuan asylum-seekers who fled violence in the Indonesian province.

A furious Indonesia threatened a review of all relations with Australia, prompting Howard's new plan to hold all asylum seekers offshore to deny them access to Australian laws and courts. The move has sparked furious debate within the Government, and is strongly opposed by all Opposition parties, human rights organisations, churches and community groups.

Last week three Liberal backbenchers crossed the floor in the House of Representatives to vote with the Opposition despite powerful pressure from Howard and senior Coalition figures, and a further two abstained. Their move was not enough to overcome the Government's Lower House majority, but it set the scene for a further - and far more critical - rebellion in the Senate.

Howard's Upper House majority is fragile: if all Opposition Senators oppose a new bill, it would take only one Government rebel to join them, or for two to abstain, to vote it down.

This now appears probable.

The attempt to deny asylum seekers access to Australian law has deeply offended many Australians and has brought condemnation from the nation's Government-appointed human rights watchdog.

Human Rights Commissioner Graeme Innes said the United Nations' human rights committee had found - for the fifth time since 1997 - that Australia's immigration detention regime breached the fundamental right to be protected from arbitrary imprisonment.

"Yet we are moving towards a system that will remove asylum seekers for processing in other countries and even detention on the open sea," he said.

"We should be looking to improve the detention laws, not make it worse for people seeking our protection."

Yesterday, the Sydney Morning Herald reported that millionaire businessman Ian Melrose intended spending tens of thousands of dollars on advertising opposing the new legislation.

And yesterday a skywritten message urging a vote against the bill floated above Parliament House.

At the weekend Family First Senator Steve Fielding announced that he intend to do just that, moved by both humanitarian concerns and anger that the legislation had been framed to appease Indonesia.

"This is dealing with people's lives and so it's a decision that should weigh heavily on anyone," he said.

Maverick Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce, who has previously crossed the floor to vote against the Government, has said he will either oppose the bill or abstain, and Liberal Senator Judith Troeth has confirmed she will also take one of the two options.

In yesterday's ACNeilsen poll, Labor climbed to 53 per cent to the Government's 47 per cent.

The poll also showed widespread dissatisfaction with the Government over rising interest rates and high petrol prices.