KEY POINTS:
SYDNEY - Late yesterday afternoon, as United States President George W. Bush was dressing to dine with Prime Minister John Howard, Chinese President Hu Jintao touched down at Mascot and prepared for a heavy agenda of meetings in and around the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit.
Later, the
leaders of the two biggest players at the forum will meet in a round of one-on-one diplomatic dances that more than anything else have kept the leaders of some of the world's greatest powers coming to Apec, year after year.
Howard, as host, will be performing his own quickstep, signing new deals with China while declining to meet Taiwan's representative and moving militarily even closer to the US.
On Saturday Bush, Howard and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet as leaders of an alliance Beijing fears is the framework for a new policy of containment.
Adding further to the global dynamics, Russian President Vladimir Putin will fly into Sydney tomorrow, after stopping over in Indonesia to sign contracts for the supply of US$1.3 billion worth of military hardware, including two Kilo class submarines, helicopters and amphibious tanks.
Putin is also expected to sign agreements opening Indonesian oilfields and mining to Russian companies.
And, like China - with whom relations have been warming - Russia distrusts US intentions and is keen both to work with the administration in Beijing to counter American influence and to extend its own reach into Asia and the western Pacific. For Apec, the wider ambitions of its major players are both boon and gloom.
The support of the leaders of the great powers creates both a framework for co-operation and development, plus a chance to put such major issues as trade and the environment on a further global agenda.
The downside is that progress is glacial.
One consequence of this is a perception among the region's movers and shakers that Apec is becoming moribund.
A survey of almost 400 business leaders, government officials and analysts by the Pacific Economic Co-operation Council, released in Sydney this week, found that less than half considered Apec as important as it was at its foundation in 1989. In the US and Canada, this fell to 30 per cent.
Of perhaps deeper significance is the recognition of China rising. The survey showed faith in China's lead role in the longer-term economic growth of Asia, with most respondents also believing that the region would be hurt more by a slowdown in China than a slowing US economy.
China is engaged in a campaign to boost its influence, both in economic terms and through the growing power of its military, although Beijing has been at pains to try to convince the rest of Asia that its defence build-up does not imply aggression.
Hu's Australian visit, his second in four years, was expanded to include resource development in Western Australia, parliamentary meetings in Canberra, and business with Howard. He was the first leader to arrive, and will stay longer than Bush.
While he is here he will also sign large resources contracts and witness other trade, justice and technology agreements.
Hu made this lengthy visit just weeks before the five-yearly Communist Party congress that is expected by Western analysts to spill much of China's most senior leadership and install a new ruling elite.
Bush has also left urgent matters at home, but has chosen to cut short his stay and head home on Saturday to deal with Iraq.
He will make good use of his time in Sydney, pushing trade and climate change policies at the leaders' summit and meeting with other leaders including Hu, Putin, Abe and South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun.
Challenged with China's emerging ascendancy during a media conference aboard Air Force One on his way to Australia, Bush rejected the concept of Apec as a China summit. "Absolutely not. This is a summit of nations that share the same values, same concerns about the world in which we live, and we'll discuss a variety of topics."
Yesterday, Bush conceded that relations with China were "complex", and more so since China reportedly hacked into Pentagon computers. If nothing else, Bush was anticipating a robust meeting with Hu. "He can tell me what's on his mind and I'll sure tell him what's on my mind."
