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Home / World

<i>Fran O'Sullivan</i>: All the tough work lies ahead

Fran O'Sullivan
By Fran O'Sullivan, Fran OSullivan
Head of Business·NZ Herald·
7 Nov, 2008 03:00 PM4 mins to read

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Fran O'Sullivan
Opinion by Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business, NZME
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KEY POINTS:

Is Barack Obama's victory really the seismic shift in American politics that it is cracked up to be?

Judging by the rapturous crowds that heralded the 47-year old's election as United States President the answer appears to be: Yes.

We now look to a future where we will
be impressed more by the power of America's example than by the example of America's power.

But giving effect to the spell-binding rhetoric will be difficult.

US voters who pumped for a generational shift proved that America is now politically colour-blind (although it should be noted that Obama is also half-white), consigned the Vietnam-era culture wars to the past (Iraq will be his own generation's dividing point for just as long) and sent a message it was time to vacate Iraq (this too will be much harder than his supporters believe).

But as outgoing US ambassador Bill McCormick - who worked on JFK's campaign in his own youth - put it to me after Obama's victory speech, the Democratic contenders really won by mastering technologies and getting new voters to the booths.

"He is quite simply the "best campaigner I've ever seen".

Obama's long road to the White House is the easiest part of his journey. In reality, the President-elect has raised expectations that he will find difficult to meet given the huge challenges facing the US economy.

As a letter writer to an American newspaper put it, "Some people think that electing Obama means that: Wal-mart employees will somehow be able to keep their US$500,000 houses and won't have to worry about foreclosure; spending another US$175 billion over and above the US$700 billion already committed to the "bailout" is a good way to rescue the economy; they will have more disposable income, despite the fact that printing a trillion dollars in a three-month period has to result in a serious currency devaluation; and, somehow they won't have to pay for the programmes Obama has promised.

"I woke up this morning and things looked pretty much the same to me. The stock market is in tatters, my dollars don't go as far as they used to, some 250,000 highly educated people have lost their jobs in the last two months and people are still killing each other in the Middle East.

"So, Obama wins the US presidential election, and now all of a sudden we're in the midst of a 'new world order' and everything's going to change overnight. Yeah, right."

The power of Obama's rhetoric will create some space in which he can manoeuvre his new Administration to confront America's economic ills.

It will also be a unifying factor. But to make good on the promise, he now has to deliver - not just for US citizens but for the citizens of other nations like ours that rely on trade with the massive American consumer market.

If New Zealand is to play its part in ensuring the US keeps its doors open to trade - no mean feat given the domestic US concern against manufacturing and back-office jobs lost to China and India - our politicians must use wisely the opportunity created by the upcoming Apec meeting in Lima.

The timing of our own election meant that Finance Minister Michael Cullen could not attend this week's meeting of Apec finance ministers.

But the omens were good: participants warned against retreating into trade protectionism as economies slow, and called on big developing countries - like China - to help stabilise financial markets and promote economic development.

The Peruvian Government has invited Obama to attend the Apec summit in two weeks. But it is unclear whether protocol - President George Bush is the official US representative - will prevent Obama from raining on Bush's parade.

Irrespective, members of the Obama transition team will be in Lima on a watching brief. Powerful business lobbies like the US Chamber of Commerce will be pushing fiercely to keep trade doors open.

New Zealand's leadership team needs to use the Lima event to cement the opportunity that the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership presents for the new US leadership to send a message that "our doors will remain open".

If the Apec opportunity is missed - or mishandled - the opportunities to keep the US and Asia talking will be lost as countries focus on their own needs alone amid the global turmoil.

In reality, Obama faces many of the same challenges that will confront our own next Prime Minister: How to deleverage economies which have floated for so long on a sea of debt and how to keep faith with voters while having to disappoint them.

Great good luck to Obama, and whoever wins our election today. They (and we) - will need it.

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