KEY POINTS:
The attack by the Colombian military on the guerrilla group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on Ecuadorean territory did not come out of the blue. There had been a series of political moves and symbolic aggrandisements from the military for it to have been approved by Colombian
leaders and citizens.
One of the main precursors for this attack was Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's cosy relationship with the United States. Uribe would not have done what he did in Ecuador had he not been fully backed up by the Bush Administration.
Therefore, this attack takes on a different subtext: one of the United States attempting to destabilise the growing, democratically elected governments in South America.
The military response of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to the Ecuador-Colombia conflict incriminates him of being not just pro-FARC but also an open supporter of armed rebellion to accomplish his vision for a united, socialist South America.
This attack shows that President Uribe no longer trusts in peaceful negotiations, and that he is an armed defender of democracy. Uribe has been defeated, not by FARC, but by the violence he is attempting to eradicate.
What's next? Will there be war? Unlikely. Regardless of grand posturing by Chavez, he is aware that economic trade with Colombia equals about US$5 billion ($6.2 billion) per year and money is, essentially, the only weapon he has.
Yet the attack on Ecuadorean soil is the type of action that can polarise public opinion. The running joke says that Uribe's approval rating is about 125.5 per cent since the attack on the insurgents, but without a doubt FARC's rating must also be ascending. The dangerous part of this is that either side will now have enough ammunition to become fanatical about their cause and extremism alone has been killing thousands of Colombians for decades.
FARC's response? For the time being there will be changes in its line of command (Raul Reyes will be replaced by Joaquin Gomez) and business as usual. Yet since FARC's structure is one of small, independently run clusters with a central command, there is the potential for segmented bouts of violence followed by the internal chaos of any major organisational change.
From Uribe we are already seeing a diversionary tactic. He will trivialise the Ecuador border violation and focus his attention on taking the case against Chavez' astronomical contributions to FARC to the International Court of Justice.
Is this the thorn on Chavez's paw? Possibly. This conflict is likely to force left-leaning Venezuelan president Chavez to be honest about his plans for a united South America. So far he has fuelled his fight against imperialism with its own medicine: lots of petroleum-drenched money. By aligning himself with or against FARC he will have to decide whether today's communism should also accept weapons, murders and kidnappings.
Chavez will likely do two things. Firstly, he make this about border disputes, not about armed revolution, and secondly, he will use Colombia's violation of international borders as another advertising spot for the flaws of the neo-liberal system.
The Bush Administration will pat Uribe's back and add another medal on Condoleezza Rice's fatigue on her war against Chavez.
Yet in the future and just as "weapons of mass destruction" did in Iraq, FARC are likely to be the perfect excuse for the US to further wedge itself in a region that is "going astray".
The verdict on what took place in Ecuador? For decades the guerrillas have insisted that kidnappings and murder of civilians are an acceptable loss in the war against an economic and political system that is, undoubtedly, causing major ecological, social and cultural catastrophes.
On the other hand the Colombian Government has insisted that the death of guerrillas and their sympathisers is an acceptable trade-off to maintain "peace" among civilians.
After the latest attack in Ecuador both the Uribe administration and the armed rebels should realise what really matters here. In Ecuador, 22 corpses have been added to the list of "tasks accomplished while seeking peace and equality".
It's a sad and blood-drenched irony.
Federico Monsalve is a Colombian-New Zealand writer and film-maker currently living in Mexico.
