KEY POINTS:
In Myanmar, as with most repressive regimes, this is how it ends. A popular uprising, fuelled by years of pent-up anger, proves an irresistible force. It may not succeed in the first instance, or even the second, but, eventually, it will triumph.
Myanmar's ruling military junta has but
two alternatives: cling to power in the meantime by brutally stamping out this uprising, or acknowledge that its time is up and accede to negotiations that will lead to the restoration of democracy.
A virtually powerless world has, unfortunately, less and less reason to believe the latter course is viewed as an option.
The plight of Myanmar's people demands a vigorous response. But hobbled by Chinese and Russian intransigence at the United Nations, the international community cannot speak with one voice.
Myanmar's greatest hope, therefore, lies in the simple fact that it has finally attracted world attention.
The charmed life that its rulers, masquerading under the title of the State Peace and Development Council, have enjoyed since seizing power 19 years ago, is at an end
Under the veil of a Pyongyang-like reclusiveness, they have, according to human rights groups, dealt in religious and political persecution and cultural genocide. An earlier set of protests, in 1987, took place away from the eyes of the Western media. They culminated a year later in soldiers gunning down an estimated 3000 pro-democracy demonstrators.
Many young members of Myanmar's 400,000-strong body of Buddhist monks were again at the head of the latest protests. The country's military dictators, isolated in the new jungle capital of Naypidaw, found themselves pitted against the country's other major institution.
They knew they must tread carefully. The monks are the country's highest moral authority, and a heavy-handed response could ignite a full-scale uprising from a people reduced to grinding poverty by economic mismanagement and corruption.
They also know that world attention leaves no room for a repeat of Tiananmen Square.
For those reasons, the junta's response was, initially at least, restrained. But caution was cast aside with the shooting of demonstrators in Yangon and raids on activist monasteries.
The latter tactic appears to have succeeded in neutralising the clergy to some degree, leaving the struggle largely to civilian and student protesters who are devoid of visible leadership.
The United States and the European Union have reacted by imposing, or planning to impose, further economic sanctions. This will make no difference. Myanmar has lived with widespread Western sanctions for many years. But it has survived, and developed an imposing army, because of the insouciance of China and India.
For decades, the regime has also enjoyed unfettered membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Repeated Western calls for China and other Asean members to press for a peaceful transition to democracy have yet to yield anything of substance.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown summed up international sentiment when he said: "A message should go out to anyone facing persecution, anywhere from Burma and Zimbabwe: human rights are universal and no injustice can last for ever."
Myanmar has suffered under military dictatorship for 45 years. It is only a matter of time before democracy is restored, probably under the leadership of the imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi, who won elections in 1990 by a landslide, only for the military to refuse to hand over power. The world focus on Myanmar guarantees as much. The only real question is how much blood will be spilt in the process.
