KEY POINTS:
One consequence of the Mumbai attacks may well be the return of military rule in Pakistan. Pakistan had an abrupt about-face on President Asif Ali Zardari's earlier commitment to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to send the chief of its spy agency, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), to help
with investigations into the Mumbai attacks.
The change has only sought to heighten doubts in the Western world about who really calls the shots in that troubled country.
Mr Zardari had made the commitment in response to Dr Singh's request soon after the Mumbai crisis began to unfold. But just hours later, reportedly after his meeting with the Army and ISI chiefs, Mr Zardari's fledgling Government was forced to renege on that commitment. A statement was issued that a lower ranking official would be sent to India instead. Commenting on this development, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told CNN that Pakistan's civilian Government had made good statements about ties with India, "but its capacity to implement them is questionable".
The Mumbai attacks came just weeks after what seemed to be genuine attempts on the part of the new democratically elected Government in Pakistan to build bridges with India. Observers have commented that there were signs of a real thaw after the ever so gradual improvement in relations between the two nuclear neighbours over the past couple of years. US President-elect Barack Obama, too, had expressed satisfaction at this progress and said he would work towards strengthening co-operation between the two countries.
As Indian investigators find increasing evidence to link the Mumbai carnage - which claimed nearly 200 lives including over 20 Westerners - to Pakistan, that peace process is not only at risk but there are fears that escalating tensions could push the two nations that have fought three wars since 1947 to the brink of yet another armed conflict.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in New Delhi today. While counselling patience to the Indian leadership she has demanded full co-operation from Pakistan's agencies in helping with investigations. But Pakistan and its Army have responded differently to the escalating tensions, raising further questions about the country's power structure.
Mr Zardari has repeatedly said that terrorists are a common enemy of both countries (his wife Benazir Bhutto was killed in a terrorist attack last year) and that India must refrain from any hasty military action. His tone so far has been conciliatory.
In comparison, the Army has been far more hawkish. It said that if India continued to point the finger at Pakistan it would be forced to move 100,000 troops from Afghanistan to its eastern border with India in preparation for a possible conflict. Its Air Force chief also has made a similar statement. This would greatly affect Western nations' continuing US-led operations against the Taleban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, while at the same time increasing tensions on its eastern front.
In anticipation of Indian investigators finding irrefutable proof linking the Mumbai incidents to Pakistan (mobile and satellite phone transcripts, evidence from GPS navigation equipment seized from the terrorists, etc), Government spokespeople have already said that even if the links with Pakistan are proved, terrorists are non-state actors and that the Government cannot be held responsible for their actions. That may be true of the new democratically elected
Government. But Pakistan has been under military rule for far more years than it has been a democracy since its independence and military governments have long been known to use the ISI for its covert operations. The ISI's top brass is drawn mostly from the Pakistani armed forces.
US and Indian intelligence agencies have long known the links that some powerful officials within the ISI have maintained with organisations like the Lashkar-e-Toiba that is engaged in subversive activities in the Kashmir region and which India has accused of complicity in the armed attack on its Parliament in New Delhi on December 13, 2001, that left about a dozen people dead.
Under pressure from the US in subsequent years, former President General Pervez Musharraf assured the UN General Assembly in 2004 that his Government would dismantle links with the ISI - which never happened. Then again, shortly after Mr Zardari took over as President, it dissolved the ISI's so-called political wing - something that obviously did not go down well with some sections of the organisation.
With no demands having been made by the terrorists in Mumbai despite holding several hostages, the only motive that most analysts have been forced to conclude is a large-scale destabilisation of the peace process between the two countries while also weakening the newly elected democratic Government in Pakistan. If Pakistan chooses to do nothing in the face of intense international pressure, it will be abundantly clear who calls the shots in that country.
But if indeed it does try to move decisively against extremist elements, it will face an uphill task that is impossible to achieve without the Army's help.
* Dev Nadkarni is a journalist based in Auckland. He has previously worked as a journalist in Mumbai.
